Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Market Breakdown & Trading Plan
Updated
1. Market Context and Structure
Phase and Current Movement:
Left Chart (4H):
Bitcoin is currently completing Wave 5 of a diagonal structure, showing signs of a potential exhaustion at the upper limits of the trend.
Key levels in focus:
96,916.73: 1.618 extension of diagonal Wave 5 (high confidence target).
100,996.81: 1.236 volume divergence by Wave 5; potential fake breakout zone.
Right Chart (Daily):
The market is within Phase B (distribution) of a larger Wyckoff schematic.
Price is approaching UT (Upthrust) in Phase B, signaling a potential liquidity grab before a markdown.
Lower supports are aligned for a reversal post-fake breakout or rejection at the resistance zone.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion):
Target Levels:
First target: 96,916.73 (1.618 extension, diagonal Wave 5).
Primary target: 100,996.81 (1.236 extension; volume divergence zone).
Stretch target: 103,266.78 (liquidity grab and trap for retail traders).
Invalidation: Failure to break above 94,989.49 indicates early weakness.
Correction and Markdown Phase:
Key Reversal Zone:
Expect reversal between 96,916.73 and 103,266.78 after trapping liquidity at the highs.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 94,157.96 (key Fibonacci retracement of Wave 4).
Medium-term target: 84,852.63 (critical support at 0.272 retracement).
Extended downside: 80,373.37 (Wave C completion within larger corrective structure).
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Bullish Resistance Zones:
96,916.73: 1.618 Fibonacci extension; high-probability rejection zone.
100,996.81: Volume divergence by Wave 5; trap zone for breakout traders.
103,266.78: Liquidity grab zone; final stretch for Wave 5 completion.
Support Levels:
94,157.96: First retracement target, likely to trigger a short-term bounce.
84,852.63: Strong structural support; reversal zone during markdown.
80,373.37: Deeper support aligned with the resistance line of BC distribution.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for a breakout above 94,989.49 with strong momentum.
Entry:
Enter longs on confirmed breakout above 94,989.49, targeting resistance levels.
Targets:
First target: 96,916.73.
Primary target: 100,996.81.
Stretch target: 103,266.78.
Invalidation: Reversal below 94,157.96 indicates Wave 5 has already topped.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion
Setup: Watch for rejection or fake breakout at 96,916.73–103,266.78.
Short Entry Criteria:
Look for bearish divergence or strong rejection at resistance.
Confirmation via lower highs on lower timeframes.
Targets:
Short-term target: 94,157.96.
Medium-term target: 84,852.63.
Extended target: 80,373.37.
Stop-Loss: Above 103,266.78 to limit risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break above 96,916.73 or reverses early:
Watch for confirmation of markdown below 94,157.96.
Short Setup:
Enter on bearish breakdown below 94,157.96.
Targets:
Short-term target: 84,852.63.
Medium-term target: 80,373.37.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 96,916.73 invalidates bearish markdown bias.
5. Commentary for Your Audience
What to Expect This Week:
Bitcoin is likely to complete Wave 5 and test the upper resistance zone near 96,916.73–103,266.78, potentially triggering a fake breakout.
A strong reversal is expected after this push, leading to a markdown phase targeting 94,157.96, 84,852.63, and potentially 80,373.37.
How to Trade:
For Long Traders:
Look for entries above 94,989.49, targeting 96,916.73 or 100,996.81.
Be cautious near upper resistance; exit longs and prepare for reversal.
For Short Traders:
Watch for rejection at 96,916.73–103,266.78 and enter shorts targeting the markdown phase.
Confirm shorts with momentum breakdowns below 94,157.96.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
For longs, place stops below 94,157.96.
For shorts, place stops above 103,266.78.
Position Sizing: Adjust for volatility, particularly near resistance.
Patience: Wait for confirmation before entering trades.
Phase and Current Movement:
Left Chart (4H):
Bitcoin is currently completing Wave 5 of a diagonal structure, showing signs of a potential exhaustion at the upper limits of the trend.
Key levels in focus:
96,916.73: 1.618 extension of diagonal Wave 5 (high confidence target).
100,996.81: 1.236 volume divergence by Wave 5; potential fake breakout zone.
Right Chart (Daily):
The market is within Phase B (distribution) of a larger Wyckoff schematic.
Price is approaching UT (Upthrust) in Phase B, signaling a potential liquidity grab before a markdown.
Lower supports are aligned for a reversal post-fake breakout or rejection at the resistance zone.
2. Expected Price Movement
Bullish Push (Wave 5 Completion):
Target Levels:
First target: 96,916.73 (1.618 extension, diagonal Wave 5).
Primary target: 100,996.81 (1.236 extension; volume divergence zone).
Stretch target: 103,266.78 (liquidity grab and trap for retail traders).
Invalidation: Failure to break above 94,989.49 indicates early weakness.
Correction and Markdown Phase:
Key Reversal Zone:
Expect reversal between 96,916.73 and 103,266.78 after trapping liquidity at the highs.
Projected Downside Targets:
Short-term target: 94,157.96 (key Fibonacci retracement of Wave 4).
Medium-term target: 84,852.63 (critical support at 0.272 retracement).
Extended downside: 80,373.37 (Wave C completion within larger corrective structure).
3. Key Price Levels to Monitor
Bullish Resistance Zones:
96,916.73: 1.618 Fibonacci extension; high-probability rejection zone.
100,996.81: Volume divergence by Wave 5; trap zone for breakout traders.
103,266.78: Liquidity grab zone; final stretch for Wave 5 completion.
Support Levels:
94,157.96: First retracement target, likely to trigger a short-term bounce.
84,852.63: Strong structural support; reversal zone during markdown.
80,373.37: Deeper support aligned with the resistance line of BC distribution.
4. Trading Plan
Scenario 1: Bullish Completion of Wave 5
Setup: Look for a breakout above 94,989.49 with strong momentum.
Entry:
Enter longs on confirmed breakout above 94,989.49, targeting resistance levels.
Targets:
First target: 96,916.73.
Primary target: 100,996.81.
Stretch target: 103,266.78.
Invalidation: Reversal below 94,157.96 indicates Wave 5 has already topped.
Scenario 2: Correction After Wave 5 Completion
Setup: Watch for rejection or fake breakout at 96,916.73–103,266.78.
Short Entry Criteria:
Look for bearish divergence or strong rejection at resistance.
Confirmation via lower highs on lower timeframes.
Targets:
Short-term target: 94,157.96.
Medium-term target: 84,852.63.
Extended target: 80,373.37.
Stop-Loss: Above 103,266.78 to limit risk.
Scenario 3: Failure of Wave 5 Completion
Setup: If price fails to break above 96,916.73 or reverses early:
Watch for confirmation of markdown below 94,157.96.
Short Setup:
Enter on bearish breakdown below 94,157.96.
Targets:
Short-term target: 84,852.63.
Medium-term target: 80,373.37.
Invalidation: Reclaiming 96,916.73 invalidates bearish markdown bias.
5. Commentary for Your Audience
What to Expect This Week:
Bitcoin is likely to complete Wave 5 and test the upper resistance zone near 96,916.73–103,266.78, potentially triggering a fake breakout.
A strong reversal is expected after this push, leading to a markdown phase targeting 94,157.96, 84,852.63, and potentially 80,373.37.
How to Trade:
For Long Traders:
Look for entries above 94,989.49, targeting 96,916.73 or 100,996.81.
Be cautious near upper resistance; exit longs and prepare for reversal.
For Short Traders:
Watch for rejection at 96,916.73–103,266.78 and enter shorts targeting the markdown phase.
Confirm shorts with momentum breakdowns below 94,157.96.
Risk Management:
Stop-Loss:
For longs, place stops below 94,157.96.
For shorts, place stops above 103,266.78.
Position Sizing: Adjust for volatility, particularly near resistance.
Patience: Wait for confirmation before entering trades.
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Trade closed: target reached
Fridays often bring unusual price action, likely due to weekly closes and lower liquidity. It might be a good day to focus on low-risk trades, consider closing positions, or simply wait for the next week's open to act with more clarity.Note
🚨 Monday Trading Plan Update: "Patience is Key" 🚨
📅 Objective: Gain clarity by observing Monday's price action and the daily close.
🌟 Plan Breakdown
🛑 Sit-Out Mode (Main Strategy)
Mondays often bring choppy, unclear moves. By waiting for the daily close, we can spot:
Where key levels are forming.
How price reacts to these levels.
When to position for high-probability setups.
🎯 Scalp Option (For the Brave)
If you must trade, stick to small, low-risk scalps. Use high-confluence setups and tight risk management.
🔍 Why This Approach?
💡 "Not trading is also trading."
Avoid unnecessary losses from impatience.
Prepare for higher-quality setups later in the week.
Start the week with a clear and disciplined mindset.
📊 What to Observe Today:
Key levels and reactions.
Sentiment from market participants.
Volatility and range for the week.
💎 Key Takeaway
"Trading is a marathon, not a sprint." Starting your week with patience helps you trade smarter and align with your strategy.
Let's stay sharp, observe the market, and prepare for the opportunities ahead. 💪
Note
If you could master one trading skill this year, what would it be?Note
How do you stay focused and motivated during periods of drawdown?Note
📊 End of Day Thoughts
Today’s market showed a lot of indecision, with price consolidating around key levels. For me, it was a reminder that waiting for clarity is just as important as taking trades. Tomorrow, I’ll be watchingfor potential setups
Disclaimer
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