Bitcoin target H&S 8400 reached, now bigger H&S

Mar 23, 2018

First target reached at 8400
Now bear small flag, below the neckline of the bigger H&S
Most important turning point is 8850, neckline of H&S also of course.
Unless we break this neckline, i think the chances are biggest that the wedge has the biggest weight (of my previous analysis)
I i still have my short position from 9050, stop around 8850

Good luck

Mar 23, 2018

Note

The H&S is still in play, BUT volume during the breakout is not really confirming it's a very reliable H&S. So i won't trade it blindly.
I am still a bit confused of what could happen now. Since we made that rally from the 7250 low, i though we would make a nice ABC correction into the 9K levels. But there was no clear B wave down.
Problem now is, for my bigger picture plan, that the rally to 9200 was only wave A, does not really fit. And if this WAS the complete ABC than it fell short to not even reach the 9400 making sentiment even weaker than i thought.
So for now i am just holding on to my short position with the stop around 8850. It would be best if price would stay below the 8600

Mar 23, 2018

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The 1min chart. It made a bull flag after it bounced from the low, but it was a false breakout, because the neckline of the H&S was to heavy probably. For the next hour, it seems it will drop to the low again next 2 hours. All the moves are going quite slow, so bulls have not lost control yet.

Mar 23, 2018

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There you have it, still no real problem, as long as we stay below 8850. I looked at my mobile and glanced at the price action, I noticed characteristics of a wedge

Mar 23, 2018

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Starting to look like a bull flag. So starting to look more like this is wave C up towards 9400. But nothing certain yet. I still have some short positions

Mar 23, 2018

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Now the flag is showing some weakness

Mar 23, 2018

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If we don’t drop within the next 2 hours or so, chances increase Bulls are trying to create an bigger inverse h&s with the neckline around the 8700

Mar 23, 2018

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This is what i am talking about, it's actually the right shoulder you are talking about. Thing is, this one is much smaller so chances it reaches it's target is much more realistic. AND the neckline is almost a straight line.
The bigger one, looks much weaker because the right shoulder is much lower than the left, meaning the bulls were not strong enough to bring the right shoulder higher. Still could could work out, but it's just not the most reliable one. Just the like the one in the primary chart, than one is also not the most reliable one. Now we have seen why, price did not even get close to the target and it just went above the neckline again and even tested it as support (for now)

Mar 23, 2018

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This was the wedge i thought i saw with my mobile i warned you about. It's not a text book wedge, but that rally up does confirm it though. But the wedge has already reached it's target. I have to say, there are allot of mixed signals at the moment

Mar 23, 2018

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I am closing half at if we get above 8700, the rest i will keep at 8850. If we do drop below 8550/8500 i will add them again

Mar 24, 2018

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I just new this would happen, that's why i closed half with a stop at 8700. I was not 100% sure, but price had bounced off the 8750 a few times, so it was quite obvious actually they would push through it because the price kept close to the resistance.
But of course i was not sure, so i kept the stop at 8850 for the other half. It's making a quite convincing bull flag, so it will probably push up further

Mar 24, 2018

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Target of this inverse H&S is around the previous high at 9150. Guys i have to admit, i am not sure what the short term plan is at the moment. Facts are, if we don't break the 9200, in theory the rising bearish wedge is still in play. I still don't think that bigger inverse H&S has real strength to succeed, but time will tell of course. I don't need to be right with view, i want to make right/winning trades. So i got no problem to chance my view of course.

For now i am staying flat, i will wait for a nice pattern or other signal that we could be turning down again. Maybe if we drop towards the 8750 if will even go long if i see the support is holding and maybe i will go short if we drop below. But i will probably just sit this one out. It's weekend again, so trading is much more unpredictable.

One thing is clear, everything above the 8750 is bullish for now

Mar 24, 2018

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Main reason it looks like i have changed my mind for the short term, is because of this highlighted area. At tops and bottoms it's an important reversal pattern, now it gives the same signal. It's not an important low or high, it's in the middle, so i don't really know what to make of it. How much value to give it

For now, things look bullish, but everything below the 9200, still has weight from the wedge. At the 11.700 we even got slightly above the wedge, so don't ignore that fact.

For now, price dropped to the support line of the inverse H&S, it should hold for the bulls

Mar 24, 2018

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It's starting to look more and more as a bear flag. Support is still getting bought, but it needs to get higher quite soon, hanging at support levels to longs usually is a bad sign