A chart for the bulls: A $BTC bounce to $54-58k? My thoughts.
In my last analysis here's what I said:
"Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the $30k range -- either stopping at $39k, or potentially testing the $34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.
Then, I think even if we find support at $39k in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid $50k range or that $57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to $29k-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief."
Where we're at now:
I think that bounce scenario is about to play out. BTC fell to the $39k support level, and it looks to have found support there. I think the most likely path from here is that BTC will fall over the coming days - week to retest that level as support (this will also scare people thinking BTC is rolling over). If support holds at $39k-40k (which I'm anticipating), I think we'll see a strong bounce up to $54-58k before the end of January (with the possibility of an extension up to the $60k resistance.
HOWEVER, don't get too bullish there. I think this is just a bounce in a larger downtrend structure. I am still macro bearish. If we reject at those levels (anywhere from $54-60k), it just sets up a lower high on the weekly timeframe which would take us lower in Feb/March.
I still think we see lower BTC prices, therefore, this would be a trade for me. I am not buying for the long term. If that lower high is set, then I think we'll end up at $25k-34k after this move.
"Now I think the most likely path from here is for BTC to fall to the $30k range -- either stopping at $39k, or potentially testing the $34k region in the worst case scenario on this next move.
Then, I think even if we find support at $39k in January and if BTC bounces higher from there (even up to the mid $50k range or that $57k resistance), there's a decent chance that BTC bounces rolls over, forming a head and shoulders pattern and breaks down further to $29k-34k sometime in February or March before it finds some mid term relief."
Where we're at now:
I think that bounce scenario is about to play out. BTC fell to the $39k support level, and it looks to have found support there. I think the most likely path from here is that BTC will fall over the coming days - week to retest that level as support (this will also scare people thinking BTC is rolling over). If support holds at $39k-40k (which I'm anticipating), I think we'll see a strong bounce up to $54-58k before the end of January (with the possibility of an extension up to the $60k resistance.
HOWEVER, don't get too bullish there. I think this is just a bounce in a larger downtrend structure. I am still macro bearish. If we reject at those levels (anywhere from $54-60k), it just sets up a lower high on the weekly timeframe which would take us lower in Feb/March.
I still think we see lower BTC prices, therefore, this would be a trade for me. I am not buying for the long term. If that lower high is set, then I think we'll end up at $25k-34k after this move.
Comment:
I just got a strong sell signal on the 10hr timeframe. The last time this happened, price fell from $50k to $46k then to $40k.
I just wanted to say this because as I said above, price needs that $39k support for this bullish idea to be valid. If not, the previous idea is the one to follow:
It's pretty much a coin flip at this point as to which direction we go in. I'm still in cash waiting for the $39k support to hold or break before I take a position. Let's see.
I just wanted to say this because as I said above, price needs that $39k support for this bullish idea to be valid. If not, the previous idea is the one to follow:
It's pretty much a coin flip at this point as to which direction we go in. I'm still in cash waiting for the $39k support to hold or break before I take a position. Let's see.
Comment:
Just an FYI, I'm now leaning towards the bearish outcome based on what I'm seeing on the charts. Should know the direction in the next week or so
Comment:
We should see a bounce higher here. Not sure if we make it all the way up to the top of the range though. Needs to break the $46-47k resistance first.
Comment:
New idea:
Let's see.