XBTFX

Bitcoin: simply no strength

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The markets are evidently calming down, and the crypto market is shortly losing its strength for the last two weeks, after a strong push to the upside. Uncertainties over banking contingencies have significantly decreased, while latest US jobs figures are pointing to the possibility of FED`s slow down in monetary tightening in the coming period. These were the main reasons for the equity market to gain in strength. But, at the same time, it was a period where BTC lost its correlation with the equity markets. The Easter holiday on western markets additionally slowed down cash flows on financial markets, which was one of the main reasons for very low trading volumes as of the end of the week.

BTC spent the previous week in the side trading. The price was moving within a tight range, between levels of $27.3K up to $28.7K, finishing the week below $28K. The market is showing signs of exhaustion during the last two weeks. RSI started its move to the downside, reaching level of 59. Although the indicator is still above level of 50, its trend clearly indicates that the indicator soon might head toward the oversold side. Moving average of 50 days continues to diverge from MA200 counterpart, which is positive, considering that it still supports the Golden cross.

Based on current charts, a move to the upside during the week ahead does not seem likely. BTC will start the week by testing a $28K short term resistance line. Considering low daily trading volumes, even before Easter holiday, the probability that the current resistance line could be breached is highly unlikely. Indicators are currently pointing to a higher probability of short term reversal. In this sense, a support line at 25K might be tested, but it should not be expected that the price could go lower from that level.

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