Some of the conceptions in this analysis on a Weekly Chart are quite similar to the conceptions from my previous analyzes on a Daily Chart, which makes this analysis more interesting.
// For Better understanding I recommend you to read previous ideas.
I would start with 19 MA which defines Mid Term trends and which works nearly in the same way as 121 MA on a Daily Chart. You see how perfectly this line interacts with the Price Chart, when price chart crosses below this line, we are facing a Downtrend. Conversely, when price crosses above this line; we are facing an Uptrend. Plus, during these trends, the line can serve either resistance or support depended on Trend. We can say this line has the same functions as a 121 MA on a Daily Chart.
As you can remember from previous ideas the RSI which I used on a Daily Chart never visited main overbought zone during a Downtrend, and main oversold zone during an Uptrend. On the Weekly Chart the RSI works in a little different way, when the price crosses below the 19 MA, the RSI crosses below its 50 horizontal level, and consolidate below it. Conversely, when the price crosses above the 19 MA, the RSI, crosses and consolidate above its 50 horizontal level. You can use it in two ways:
First: As a confirmation of a reversal of the trend when RSI crosses above/below its 50 horizontal level.
Second: If the RSI line approaches to oversold zone (which is between 50 and 25 levels) during an Uptrend. It's better to close and not initiate long positions, and wait for a significant action whether the line crosses the 50 horizontal level or retrace from this level and continue an Upward trend (expection could be if you are a Holder).
Conversely, during a Downtrend, it's better to close your short positions and not to initiate the ones, if the RSI line approaches to overbought zone (which is between 75 and 50 levels). And wait for a significant action whether the line crosses above or retraces from the 50 horizontal level and continue a Downtrend.
Also You can use this information for better reflection of a Market, because in comparison with my previous ideas it reflects the behavior of the market in a little different way, and on a different timeframe.
Now let's talk about $7.800 level and why it is so important. Firstly I would add that it's better to use zone not a concrete level for working (for example: $7800-7700 zone).
This level is important because of 100 MA, which hold the price not to fall down. You can see what happened; when the Price Chart crossed below this line, we saw a fall down to $3.100 level, and when the Price crossed above we saw a rally to $13.800. The fact that we are in a Downtrend, tells there is a great chance to lose this level. Personally I do not consider an option we will see $3.000 (though we can't exclude this level at all) , but levels $7.000, $6.000, and $5.000 are really worth to pay attention to in Mid Term. Also, according to my previous idea there might be place for an Upward move, before we lose this 100 MA Support Level.
Currently the Market is ranging and it's better to stay out until there is a breakout, plus initiate the positions that conform the Trend.
Also I should remind about my previous idea, where I said how to sell high in case there is an Upward move, and how to catch this movement in time.
Thank You for reading this idea! Hope it's been educational and can serve profitable for someone.
Please if you consider this idea useful, hit the like button. Also share your own ideas and thoughts about the market in comments below.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advise.
// For Better understanding I recommend you to read previous ideas.
I would start with 19 MA which defines Mid Term trends and which works nearly in the same way as 121 MA on a Daily Chart. You see how perfectly this line interacts with the Price Chart, when price chart crosses below this line, we are facing a Downtrend. Conversely, when price crosses above this line; we are facing an Uptrend. Plus, during these trends, the line can serve either resistance or support depended on Trend. We can say this line has the same functions as a 121 MA on a Daily Chart.
As you can remember from previous ideas the RSI which I used on a Daily Chart never visited main overbought zone during a Downtrend, and main oversold zone during an Uptrend. On the Weekly Chart the RSI works in a little different way, when the price crosses below the 19 MA, the RSI crosses below its 50 horizontal level, and consolidate below it. Conversely, when the price crosses above the 19 MA, the RSI, crosses and consolidate above its 50 horizontal level. You can use it in two ways:
First: As a confirmation of a reversal of the trend when RSI crosses above/below its 50 horizontal level.
Second: If the RSI line approaches to oversold zone (which is between 50 and 25 levels) during an Uptrend. It's better to close and not initiate long positions, and wait for a significant action whether the line crosses the 50 horizontal level or retrace from this level and continue an Upward trend (expection could be if you are a Holder).
Conversely, during a Downtrend, it's better to close your short positions and not to initiate the ones, if the RSI line approaches to overbought zone (which is between 75 and 50 levels). And wait for a significant action whether the line crosses above or retraces from the 50 horizontal level and continue a Downtrend.
Also You can use this information for better reflection of a Market, because in comparison with my previous ideas it reflects the behavior of the market in a little different way, and on a different timeframe.
Now let's talk about $7.800 level and why it is so important. Firstly I would add that it's better to use zone not a concrete level for working (for example: $7800-7700 zone).
This level is important because of 100 MA, which hold the price not to fall down. You can see what happened; when the Price Chart crossed below this line, we saw a fall down to $3.100 level, and when the Price crossed above we saw a rally to $13.800. The fact that we are in a Downtrend, tells there is a great chance to lose this level. Personally I do not consider an option we will see $3.000 (though we can't exclude this level at all) , but levels $7.000, $6.000, and $5.000 are really worth to pay attention to in Mid Term. Also, according to my previous idea there might be place for an Upward move, before we lose this 100 MA Support Level.
Currently the Market is ranging and it's better to stay out until there is a breakout, plus initiate the positions that conform the Trend.
Also I should remind about my previous idea, where I said how to sell high in case there is an Upward move, and how to catch this movement in time.
Thank You for reading this idea! Hope it's been educational and can serve profitable for someone.
Please if you consider this idea useful, hit the like button. Also share your own ideas and thoughts about the market in comments below.
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advise.
