After the shenanigans from yesterday, it is a bit difficult to anticipate what will happen next. All the exchanges are out of whack right now, so the index is probably the better place to look for the clues.
1. Looking at lower timeframe we can see an ascending triangle being formed. It can also be interpreted as a bear flag.
2. Bollinger bands are narrowing to match the triangle perimeters.
3. ADX is sloping down, which means the most volatile part of the move is over.
Now we need to wait and watch how the price breaks.
1. If price breaks out to the upside, target will be back into the 60Ks. If this happens, chances are price may come down again to test the triangle break out area, but most likely wont make any lower low from yesterday. Nothing is guaranteed, but that would be the most probable case for this scenario.
2. If price breaks out to the downside, target will be into the low 50ks to high 40ks. In this scenario, the mid term bull case stalls out for now. Any bounce will probably be a sell, increasing the probability of a short to mid term downtrend. Potential bottoming area may be at the 21 week EMA level, which is now at the mid 40ks.
In either case, I don't believe we have seen the end of the bull market just yet. Patience and risk management is the key to surviving this market. Good luck out there.
1. Looking at lower timeframe we can see an ascending triangle being formed. It can also be interpreted as a bear flag.
2. Bollinger bands are narrowing to match the triangle perimeters.
3. ADX is sloping down, which means the most volatile part of the move is over.
Now we need to wait and watch how the price breaks.
1. If price breaks out to the upside, target will be back into the 60Ks. If this happens, chances are price may come down again to test the triangle break out area, but most likely wont make any lower low from yesterday. Nothing is guaranteed, but that would be the most probable case for this scenario.
2. If price breaks out to the downside, target will be into the low 50ks to high 40ks. In this scenario, the mid term bull case stalls out for now. Any bounce will probably be a sell, increasing the probability of a short to mid term downtrend. Potential bottoming area may be at the 21 week EMA level, which is now at the mid 40ks.
In either case, I don't believe we have seen the end of the bull market just yet. Patience and risk management is the key to surviving this market. Good luck out there.
Comment:
Now price seems to be moving in an ascending channel. Bear flag scenario is getting stronger. Until price moves above 59.5 k, downside is looking more probable.
Comment:
Bear flag playing out. Chance of testing 21 week EMA is very strong. With bitcoin, it's hard to predict. In most cases targets either overshoot or don't reach. I will scale in small sizes at some fib areas with tight stop loss. Ultimately until price breaks below 21 week EMA and finds resistance there, this is still a big dip, comparable to March dip. Looking at prior market tops, this still looks like a weighing station in route to the final destination.
