This is sort of stating the obvious, but there is no rule that says the same moving average has to hold every time. It is possible that the same moving averages aren't going to support BTC this time around. This chart shows a possible scenario that excludes moving averages and focuses more on the chart patterns. It is self explanatory. As much as I would like to see BTC rally from here, the current state of traditional markets are putting a strain on BTC's price.