SUMMARY:
- Bitcoin testing 20 period monthly SMA (close below would be quite bearish)
- Sitting at 50% Fib retracement from most recent rally to $14,000 USD (50% retrace is not a very reliable level, watch for 61.8% or even 78.6% retracement)
- Currently testing long-term uptrend from 2015 (red trend line)
- Bearish outlook on both daily and weekly charts with respect to moving average orientation (moving averages acting as resistance rather than support)
- Oversold on the daily timeframe, expecting a relief bounce (may suggest lightening up exposure if unable to stomach potential drop to $5,500 or even $4,300)
ANALYSIS:
Bitcoin has been beaten over the past few weeks, in particular the past few days.
With Bitcoin currently sitting around $6900 USD at the time of writing, the question on everybody's lips is "...is it over?"
Short answer, it depends.
Long answer, although the fundamental drivers for Bitcoin remain in tact (the halvening in particular), the technical picture is quiet ugly.
The red trend line goes back to 2015, this has been an incredibly important line in the sand, it indicated the blow-off top of 2017 and it also signaled a divergence from trend when Bitcoin rallied up to $14,000 USD in June 2019. If we get a substantial close below this trend line (which is entirely possible) then the near-term and even mid-term outlook for Bitcoin gets quiet bearish, likely leading to a retest of around $5,000 USD, failing to hold there would suggest a fall to within the most recent lows at $3,000-$4,000 USD.
At press time, i would expect a near-term bounce as we are very oversold on the daily timeframe, but the path of least resistance appears to be lower, unless Bitcoin can get a substantial (and high volume) reversal underway.
Bitcoin also is flirting with the 20 period monthly SMA, a close below this level would very likely flip sentiment to outwardly bearish.
Over in Fib land we are currently sitting at the 50% retracement level from the most recent rally to $14,000 USD, there is substantial price build up which may act as support (the prior consolidation in 2018 before the drop to $3,000 USD), however the 50% retracement level is not very reliable, the 61.8% ($5,500 USD) or even the 78.6% ($4,300 USD) to me would be more logical levels of support.
- Bitcoin testing 20 period monthly SMA (close below would be quite bearish)
- Sitting at 50% Fib retracement from most recent rally to $14,000 USD (50% retrace is not a very reliable level, watch for 61.8% or even 78.6% retracement)
- Currently testing long-term uptrend from 2015 (red trend line)
- Bearish outlook on both daily and weekly charts with respect to moving average orientation (moving averages acting as resistance rather than support)
- Oversold on the daily timeframe, expecting a relief bounce (may suggest lightening up exposure if unable to stomach potential drop to $5,500 or even $4,300)
ANALYSIS:
Bitcoin has been beaten over the past few weeks, in particular the past few days.
With Bitcoin currently sitting around $6900 USD at the time of writing, the question on everybody's lips is "...is it over?"
Short answer, it depends.
Long answer, although the fundamental drivers for Bitcoin remain in tact (the halvening in particular), the technical picture is quiet ugly.
The red trend line goes back to 2015, this has been an incredibly important line in the sand, it indicated the blow-off top of 2017 and it also signaled a divergence from trend when Bitcoin rallied up to $14,000 USD in June 2019. If we get a substantial close below this trend line (which is entirely possible) then the near-term and even mid-term outlook for Bitcoin gets quiet bearish, likely leading to a retest of around $5,000 USD, failing to hold there would suggest a fall to within the most recent lows at $3,000-$4,000 USD.
At press time, i would expect a near-term bounce as we are very oversold on the daily timeframe, but the path of least resistance appears to be lower, unless Bitcoin can get a substantial (and high volume) reversal underway.
Bitcoin also is flirting with the 20 period monthly SMA, a close below this level would very likely flip sentiment to outwardly bearish.
Over in Fib land we are currently sitting at the 50% retracement level from the most recent rally to $14,000 USD, there is substantial price build up which may act as support (the prior consolidation in 2018 before the drop to $3,000 USD), however the 50% retracement level is not very reliable, the 61.8% ($5,500 USD) or even the 78.6% ($4,300 USD) to me would be more logical levels of support.
