Bitcoin is flashing warning signs that the euphoria may be nearing a halt. While bulls have defended every dip for months, this recent structure exposes potential systemic exhaustion and a clear top-heavy formation.
🔶 Triple Top Formation – Major Reversal Pattern
Price has formed three clear rejections near 111k to 113k failing to break this horizontal ceiling despite strong attempts:
• Top 1: Initial euphoric breakout in Q1 2025.
• Top 2: Mid-cycle rejection with lower momentum.
• Top 3: Final spike with a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure.
This isn’t just psychological resistance — this is institutional exit behavior. When a triple top aligns with bearish structure, the probabilities of reversal spike.
⸻
📐 Rising Wedge Breakdown Risk
Zooming into structure, BTC is also caught in a rising wedge, a pattern that typically precedes a sharp trend reversal when the lower trendline fails.
• This wedge began forming since the $57K low in January 2025, and has now reached terminal compression.
• Breakout attempt failed to sustain new highs, now back inside the wedge.
If price breaks down with volume, it confirms distribution at the top.
⸻
🧠 Multi-Layered Breakdown Zones
Here’s the full structure unraveling beneath:
🟡 Immediate Support (Temporary Relief):
• 104,763 is the first demand zone. However, this is weak and already being tested.
🟡 Critical Breakdown Trigger (Trendline + Horizontal Confluence):
• 86,113 aligns with wedge base and horizontal structure. Losing this is not a dip — it’s a structural breach.
🟡 Neckline of the Triple Top:
• 74,496 – this is the last defense. A breakdown here activates the full triple-top bearish target.
⸻
📉 Projected Pathway – Full Breakdown Sequence
If price fails to reclaim 113K, here’s the probable sequence:
1. Failure to hold 104K → Drop to 86K.
2. Weak bounce from 86K followed by breakdown → retest neckline at 74.5K.
3. Neckline breaks → Full triple top target opens towards 57,000–58,000 zone.
🔻 Target: 57,003 – Aligns with historical pivot from Nov 2024 and major liquidity grab.
⸻
💬 Macro Interpretation
While spot price remains above key zones, the underlying structure has flipped bearish:
• Every push higher is met with lower momentum.
• Trendline losing steam, and volume failing to confirm rallies.
• This looks like a top-heavy distribution, not accumulation.
⸻
⚠️ What to Watch Now
• Daily closes below 104K = early sign of pressure.
• Breakdown and daily close below 86K = breakdown from rising wedge.
• Neckline at 74,496 is the trap door. If this gives in, expect acceleration.
⸻
✅ Action Plan
• No fresh longs until BTC closes above 113K with conviction.
• Shorting below 104K with tight stops makes sense for intraday traders.
• Bigger positional shorts can be initiated on breakdown + retest of 86K.
• Full breakdown shorting zone activates below neckline retest.
⸻
📌 Summary:
Triple Top + Rising Wedge + Structural Failures = Recipe for Collapse.
BTC bulls need a miracle above 113K. Otherwise, price is setting up for a high-velocity drop toward 57K zone over the coming weeks.
🔶 Triple Top Formation – Major Reversal Pattern
Price has formed three clear rejections near 111k to 113k failing to break this horizontal ceiling despite strong attempts:
• Top 1: Initial euphoric breakout in Q1 2025.
• Top 2: Mid-cycle rejection with lower momentum.
• Top 3: Final spike with a long upper wick, indicating selling pressure.
This isn’t just psychological resistance — this is institutional exit behavior. When a triple top aligns with bearish structure, the probabilities of reversal spike.
⸻
📐 Rising Wedge Breakdown Risk
Zooming into structure, BTC is also caught in a rising wedge, a pattern that typically precedes a sharp trend reversal when the lower trendline fails.
• This wedge began forming since the $57K low in January 2025, and has now reached terminal compression.
• Breakout attempt failed to sustain new highs, now back inside the wedge.
If price breaks down with volume, it confirms distribution at the top.
⸻
🧠 Multi-Layered Breakdown Zones
Here’s the full structure unraveling beneath:
🟡 Immediate Support (Temporary Relief):
• 104,763 is the first demand zone. However, this is weak and already being tested.
🟡 Critical Breakdown Trigger (Trendline + Horizontal Confluence):
• 86,113 aligns with wedge base and horizontal structure. Losing this is not a dip — it’s a structural breach.
🟡 Neckline of the Triple Top:
• 74,496 – this is the last defense. A breakdown here activates the full triple-top bearish target.
⸻
📉 Projected Pathway – Full Breakdown Sequence
If price fails to reclaim 113K, here’s the probable sequence:
1. Failure to hold 104K → Drop to 86K.
2. Weak bounce from 86K followed by breakdown → retest neckline at 74.5K.
3. Neckline breaks → Full triple top target opens towards 57,000–58,000 zone.
🔻 Target: 57,003 – Aligns with historical pivot from Nov 2024 and major liquidity grab.
⸻
💬 Macro Interpretation
While spot price remains above key zones, the underlying structure has flipped bearish:
• Every push higher is met with lower momentum.
• Trendline losing steam, and volume failing to confirm rallies.
• This looks like a top-heavy distribution, not accumulation.
⸻
⚠️ What to Watch Now
• Daily closes below 104K = early sign of pressure.
• Breakdown and daily close below 86K = breakdown from rising wedge.
• Neckline at 74,496 is the trap door. If this gives in, expect acceleration.
⸻
✅ Action Plan
• No fresh longs until BTC closes above 113K with conviction.
• Shorting below 104K with tight stops makes sense for intraday traders.
• Bigger positional shorts can be initiated on breakdown + retest of 86K.
• Full breakdown shorting zone activates below neckline retest.
⸻
📌 Summary:
Triple Top + Rising Wedge + Structural Failures = Recipe for Collapse.
BTC bulls need a miracle above 113K. Otherwise, price is setting up for a high-velocity drop toward 57K zone over the coming weeks.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Stay ahead of the market—Follow my channel for free insights~~ Telegram channel link below !
t.me/+jvSU52DTZAphYTc1
youtube.com/@TeamSpark-08
t.me/+jvSU52DTZAphYTc1
youtube.com/@TeamSpark-08
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.