Bitcoin medium term long, cumulative volume exhaustion, fut prem
Position size maximum 20% equity . Leverage max 4x for this volatility. Current price 561USD, stop loss 503USD. Targets are 606, 636, 666, 686, 706. Liquidation of 15%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 10% at these positions respectively.
EXIT: Futures premium reach +5%, close 50% of positions.
Fisher reach over 5th bar and is heading down, close 60% of positions
OBV reach 38955392 close 50% of positions. OBV reach 48648733 close all positions.
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Reasoning.
1. Futures premium is at -1%, an extreme oversold value. Overbearish sentiment from the bitfinex hack. Must correct upwards in short term, even if this is part of a medium term bear trend.
2. Fisher transform, showing capitulation from the 840 euphoria high is complete or near completion.
3. On Balance Volume is at BOTTOM levels. We settled at $560 with similar cum volume levels as $440 before the entire euphoria cycle. Signals the market has reached finality and released its load.
Start with a small long position and add to this slowly as strength picks up. Watch the FUTURES PREMIUM. I will update this position.
EXIT: Futures premium reach +5%, close 50% of positions.
Fisher reach over 5th bar and is heading down, close 60% of positions
OBV reach 38955392 close 50% of positions. OBV reach 48648733 close all positions.
==
Reasoning.
1. Futures premium is at -1%, an extreme oversold value. Overbearish sentiment from the bitfinex hack. Must correct upwards in short term, even if this is part of a medium term bear trend.
2. Fisher transform, showing capitulation from the 840 euphoria high is complete or near completion.
3. On Balance Volume is at BOTTOM levels. We settled at $560 with similar cum volume levels as $440 before the entire euphoria cycle. Signals the market has reached finality and released its load.
Start with a small long position and add to this slowly as strength picks up. Watch the FUTURES PREMIUM. I will update this position.
Trade active:
Current price 590. Good profit so far. Continue trade.
Trade active:
Since the market did not even consolidate at the bottom, much more bullish than I anticipated. Change final 3 price targets to 689, 709, 739 respectively.
Trade active:
Continuation of trade. First target of 606 reached. 15% of position closed
Trade active:
587 current price. Conditions still good.
Trade active:
Halfway of time-stop. Trade still active. Conditions good.
Comment:
Trade continue. Symmetrical triangle breakup. Note, @fontase on twitter is not me. I have reported him as an imposter
Comment:
continue
Comment:
Raise stop-loss to 583. Minimum profit if stoplossed there is 15.6% at recommended 4x leverage
Trade active:
Almost on target
Comment:
I have closed 65% of my position for deep profit on 4x leverage at the original first 3 target: 606, 636, 689. Raise stop loss to 636. Remaining 2 targets are 709, 739. Still open on 35% of the long position. Will close 25% and 10% at these targets respectively.
Trade closed: target reached:
Final update. Successfully closed all positions at defined targets: 606, 636, 689, 709, 739. The return on capital for each target was 4.8%, 10.6%, 27.3%, 26.3%, 12.7%.
On the initial capital for 4x long, made a total 81.9% gain. Thank you BTC
Final update. Successfully closed all positions at defined targets: 606, 636, 689, 709, 739. The return on capital for each target was 4.8%, 10.6%, 27.3%, 26.3%, 12.7%.
On the initial capital for 4x long, made a total 81.9% gain. Thank you BTC
Trade still active.