Interpretation of cryptocurrency market on February 22 2023
The Nasdaq fell 2.5% last night. The weakness of US stocks drove the crypto market to adjust. As we mentioned yesterday, the inflation data and the Fed's view could be of little practical significance after the market has played this game for a year. The future is relatively straightforward.
In the current bull market to 2025, BTC probably rose to about 100,000, and ETH rose to about 10,000. This conclusion can be reached by analyzing from multiple perspectives unless a small probability event such as a world war, nuclear war, or other horrible impacts of black swan happens. But assuming such events do occur, there is little point in earning by shorting. That's why making long is the only option on significant levels.
The double top or top structure is more obvious in this change. In hindsight, there are profits to be made by going short. The trade-off between 25,000 to 22,000 and 25,000 to 40,000 is clear. For most traders, it is easy to confuse yourself with this type of operation. If the counter-trend single is done smoothly, you may develop the habit of focusing too much on trim levels. It is easy to lose out on the most lucrative large market levels. If the counter-trend single does not do well, the mentality and easy to go wrong, resulting in trading out of shape.
Whether it is events, data, or short-term trends in correlated markets, I prefer to give up the less time-sensitive and less influential side. It is easier to make relatively correct choices by filtering out the less valuable information.
In the current bull market to 2025, BTC probably rose to about 100,000, and ETH rose to about 10,000. This conclusion can be reached by analyzing from multiple perspectives unless a small probability event such as a world war, nuclear war, or other horrible impacts of black swan happens. But assuming such events do occur, there is little point in earning by shorting. That's why making long is the only option on significant levels.
The double top or top structure is more obvious in this change. In hindsight, there are profits to be made by going short. The trade-off between 25,000 to 22,000 and 25,000 to 40,000 is clear. For most traders, it is easy to confuse yourself with this type of operation. If the counter-trend single is done smoothly, you may develop the habit of focusing too much on trim levels. It is easy to lose out on the most lucrative large market levels. If the counter-trend single does not do well, the mentality and easy to go wrong, resulting in trading out of shape.
Whether it is events, data, or short-term trends in correlated markets, I prefer to give up the less time-sensitive and less influential side. It is easier to make relatively correct choices by filtering out the less valuable information.
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