Expected flow during this volatility period
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USDT, USDC seem to have gapped up as the weekend approaches.
I think the gapped up is a sign of funds flowing into the coin market.
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to lead to a decline in the coin market.
However, since funds flow into the coin market through USDT, I think that USDT dominance will show an upward trend in the medium to long term when considering it from a medium to long term perspective.
When funds flowing into the coin market purchase coins and tokens, USDT or USDC flow back into the exchange, which is expressed as a decline in USDT dominance.
Therefore, I think that in order for a large bull market in the coin market to begin, USDT dominance will start to decline after a large rise.
In that sense, the 4.97 point of USDT dominance is expected to be an important turning point.
If USDT dominance rises above 6.39, the coin market is likely to show a large decline.
I think that if it rises above 6.39 and then falls to the 4.97-6.39 range, the coin market is likely to form a bottom range.
My personal hope is that it will fall after receiving resistance near 6.39 ~ Fibonacci ratio 0.75.
If that happens, I think the coin market will already be on an uptrend before it is recognized as a bottom.
We need to see whether individual investors will recognize it as a bottom and give them a buying opportunity, or whether they will not give them a buying opportunity.
In that sense, I expect the volatility period around September 13 to be a meaningful period.
In fact, this volatility period is the period set on the 1W chart.
Therefore, the actual volatility period is the week before and after September 16.
In other words, if expressed as a 1-day period, it corresponds to September 9-29.
The strong support zone is expected to be around 42K-43K.
I think this is the zone that most people are expecting.
Therefore, if we give individual investors a buying opportunity as I mentioned earlier, I think it will touch around 42K-43K.
If we do not give individual investors a buying opportunity, it is expected to turn upward near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart.
In other words, it is expected to touch around the Fibonacci ratio of 0.707 (48064.07) ~ 0.786 (51606.42) and turn upward.
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When looking at the NAS100USD chart, we need to check if the StochRSI indicator enters the oversold zone again when a new candle is created.
The important zone is the 17854.8 point.
If it falls below this point, it is likely to touch the Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (17141.4) on the right.
Therefore, I expect the trend to form after the volatility period of BTC that I mentioned earlier.
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Have a good time.
Thank you.
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- Big picture
It is expected that the real uptrend will start after it rises above 29K.
The expected range to touch in the next bull market is 81K-95K.
#BTCUSD 12M
1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 13401.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15
These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.
We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.
#BTCUSD 1M
If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55
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Note
Currently, the MS-Signal indicator (M-Signal on the 1D chart) is passing around 57937.19.
When a new candle is created, it is not yet known how far it will fall, but I think it will fall around 56950.56.
Therefore, in order to turn into a short-term uptrend, it is expected to be possible only if it receives support above the 56150.01-56950.56 range.
However, since the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is located at 57937.19, if it shows support near this point, it is a time to buy.
Therefore, the support and resistance zones are:
1st: 54730.0
2nd: 56150.01-56950.56
3rd: 57937.19
4th: 59053.55
5th: 60672.0-61099.25
You can trade around the 1st-5th above depending on whether there is support or not.
For more details, I will update again when a new candle is created on the 1W chart.
Note
The HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart is moving from 57937.19 to 56204.13, showing signs of being created.
Also, the MS-Signal indicator (M-Signal on the 1D chart) is passing through the 56204.13-57937.19 range.
Therefore, the support in the 56150.01-56950.56 range is expected to be an important range for a short-term uptrend.
Therefore, the key is whether it can be supported near 54730.0 and rise to the 56204.13-57937.19 range.
StochRSI > StochRSI EMA is showing signs of transitioning, but since the StochRSI indicator is in the oversold zone, it is not easy to buy even if it is supported near 54730.0.
Therefore, I think it is better to wait a little longer.
As an individual investor, I think the psychological zone where you actually trade is likely to occur when it rises above 61K and when it rises above 65K-67K.
Note
It appears that more funds are flowing into the coin market through USDC.
Note
If it is supported around 56150.01-56950.56, it is expected to turn into a short-term uptrend.
However, a response strategy is needed depending on whether the major section can be broken upward.
1. 59053.55
2. 60672.0-61099.25
3. 63118.62-64000.0
4. 65920.71-67614.25
The most important section among the above sections is 60672.0-61099.25.
This section is the HA-High indicator point of the 1M chart, and is a section where a high point section is formed from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, if the price is maintained above this section, the possibility of a full-scale uptrend starting from a long-term perspective increases.
The HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is at 65920.71, and the HA-High indicator on the 1D chart is at 67614.25.
Therefore, the next important section after 61099.25 is the 65920.71-67614.25 section.
Based on the current price position, the price must rise above 67614.25 to maintain the price, which increases the possibility of a full-scale uptrend in the short term.
Therefore, if we think about it again, we should create or modify our trading strategy depending on whether there is support in the above 4 sections.
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Looking at the 1M chart, the StochRSI indicator does not seem to have entered the oversold section yet.
Therefore, if it is not supported near 56K,
1st: Fibonacci ratio range 0.707 ~ 0.0786
2nd: 42K-43K
You need to check whether there is support in the 1st and 2nd ranges above.
At this time, the M-Signal indicator and HA-High indicator on the 1M chart are important.
If the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, it means that the upward trend is being maintained.
The HA-High indicator means that a high point range has been formed.
Therefore, if the price is maintained above the HA-High indicator, there is a high possibility that a stepwise upward trend will continue.
If it falls without being supported by the HA-High indicator, there is a basic possibility that it will meet the HA-Low indicator.
Since the HA-Low indicator means that a low point range has been formed, if it is supported near this area, it is a time to buy.
If it falls in the HA-Low indicator, there is a high possibility that a stepwise downward trend will occur, so caution is required.
Therefore, trading is possible depending on whether there is support in the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.
However, at this time, how to proceed with the trade can be determined by referring to the movements of the StochRSI indicator and BW indicator.
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Looking at the 1W chart, it shows a rising trend after touching the buy line of the superTrend indicator.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is passing around 59053.55, so in order to turn into an upward trend from a medium- to long-term perspective, it is expected that it will need to rise above 59053.55 to receive support.
However, since the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is formed at the 65920.71 point, whether there is support at the 65920.71 point is important.
It appears that the StochRSI indicator has entered the oversold zone.
Therefore, when the StochRSI indicator is out of the oversold zone and StochRSI > StochRSI EMA, you can trade depending on whether there is support in the support and resistance zones drawn on the chart.
Therefore, you should interpret that it is not yet the time to buy on the 1M and 1W charts.
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To summarize the above, on the 1D chart, it is the time to buy depending on whether there is support near 56K, but on the 1W or 1M charts, it is not yet the time to buy.
Therefore, it is a time when a short-term response strategy is needed.
In the future, we should consider that there are 3 buying periods and pay attention to the proportion of buying investments.
Note
It appears that funds are flowing into the coin market through USDC.
Note
The key is whether it can maintain its price by receiving support near 56150.01-56950.56 and rising above the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator.
Accordingly, it is necessary to check whether it can receive support by rising above 57889.10.
If it receives support from the HA-Low indicator (56204.13) and rises, it is basically likely to touch the HA-High indicator (current location 67614.25).
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that a low point range has been formed, and the creation of the HA-High indicator means that a high point range has been formed.
Therefore, a trend is formed only when it breaks out of the HA-Low ~ HA-High range.
With just the HA-Low and HA-High indicators, you can identify support and resistance zones and create trading strategies.
The indicators are publicly available on TradingView for anyone to use.
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