Bitcoin: Fed Cut, Spot ETFs, Michael Saylor, Doubts & Questions

Oct 28

I am always considering the other "side," the competing point of view. I always accept what others are saying, try to see things the way others see it.

Everyday, I try to see Bitcoin moving higher and I stay open to 100K. I've been open and waiting since March 2024 and with every day that passes I get more and more convinced that 100K is not happening, but instead we are seeing a massive consolidation phase.

But I never give...

— What am I not seeing?
— What are they seeing that I am missing?
— Why or how do I see lower highs on the chart, am I making them up?
— Are prices rising and somehow I am ignoring this?
— Did Bitcoin hit 84,000 on a wick on the 5th of August and somehow I saw it in reverse?

— Where am I wrong?
— What am I missing?

But with each passing day, I am more and more convinced that my friends here might be wrong. It is painful but I have to accept that I might be seeing it the way I think I see it... But I keep trying.

Ok... What are the signals that you look for a bullish breakout to happen?

High volume, a major low being hit, bullish divergence on the indicators, low prices after a major bearish cycle, etc. Are these present here? No.

Ok... Maybe you are justified in thinking that the chart is bearish.
Maybe you are not fooling yourself.
Maybe these people are wrong...

But how can they be wrong, if they are wrong it means I am right, and if I am right, it means that Bitcoin has been going down and not up since March 2024.

Let me ask you a question, what is the difference between October 2024 and October 2023?

In October 2024 Bitcoin is trading at $67,800 and the price was around $26,000 in October 2023.

Do you belief Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in October 2024?
Of course not. This is very unlikely.

Do you think Bitcoin will remain at the same level in October 2024?
Leave a comment.

What tends to happen before the elections?

If Bitcoin is ultra-bullish, why is it not already trading at 90K?

If we have Michael Saylor claiming to the moon, the Spot ETFs, Fed Cuts and the rest, why is Bitcoin not trading at 100K already?

Why Bitcoin has not grown in the last 7 months?

Because we are in the distribution phase, and the distribution phase ends in a major crash, prices go down not up. That's why. It is because after a bullish wave, the market produces a correction.

We are in the correction phase right now. Only after the correction is over we can see growth.

But Michael Saylor bought Bitcoin!

The company that he runs bought Bitcoin, it is likely that on the outside he is building a massive SHORT.

Namaste.

Oct 29

Trade active

Bitcoin is now at $71,500 resistance, way above the 29-July peak price which sits at $70,050. We have a higher high on a daily basis, what now?

Moving above 70,000 is definitely a major milestone and a bullish development but we would need confirmation first. It can happen that Bitcoin pierces above this level today, moves up for a few days and comes crashing back down...

The week is only getting started...

➢ If Bitcoin can stay above $70,000 by the end of the week, we can say that this resistance level has been conquered and we have a higher high and the first one in three months.

➢ If Bitcoin moves a little while above $70,000 but then move back down, we would say we have a failed breakout or bull-trap and this would give further strength to the bearish case (the upcoming correction and market crash).

We have a move above 70,000 but trading volume is still very low. Volume is the foremost confirmation signal. Low volume = weak move.

Since the month is ending this week, we can look for both a weekly and monthly close above 70,000/71,000 to get a bullish confirmation.

If Bitcoin fails to stay above this level, it means that the current rise is part of the previous inverted correction.

There is still resistance at $72,000 (7-June) and ~$74,000 (14-March).

👉 We continue bearish on Bitcoin.

Thanks a lot for your support.

Namaste.

Oct 30

Trade active

The $74,000 resistance level has been confirmed. The week is still young and Bitcoin is losing momentum, the bearish bias and potential is confirmed by the Altcoins which are trading much lower. We will see a reversal and end up the week closing back below resistance. It will end up as fake breakout or bull-trap. One final jump or liquidity hunt event; name it what you will, a correction follows next.

The great news is that this correction will set the market low. Once the low is in, we will focus on green/LONG/growth. We will never look back... It will be the start of a new cycle and the market will grow for many months. The next bullish phase can last anywhere between 8 to 12 or even 16 months. More likely 12 (from November 2024 through November 2025).

Thanks a lot for your support.