The State of Bitcoin (Dec '19)

Dec 8, 2019

An Elliott Wave + Kennedy Channel (EWKC) illustration of price architecture from Dec '18 to present. USDT pair selected due to highest traded volume. Key observations since last TA.
Key:

Blue | Green | Red = Base | Accel. | Decel.

Observations:

• The 19 Nov rally was resisted by the Deceleration centre (Log scale)
  
• Price was resisted by the Deceleration lower bound on the 25th Nov
  
• Price formed a Bullish diagonal beginning 25th Nov. Comprised of a 5-3-5-3-5 structure, this can only be a leading diagonal.
  

Conclusions:

• The 25 Nov rally is a perfect candidate for a W1/WA of higher degree (a 5-wave move or a corrective 3-wave move respectively).
  
• The chance of another rally after a >=50% retracement is high.
  
• The architecture of the larger degree wave formed by the next move after this retracement will indicate whether the larger move will be corrective (3 wave) or motive (5-wave).
  
• A move below $6515 invalidates the diagonal candidate.