Dear friends!
I have made a new analysis of Bitcoin. The situation is a little more complicated than it seems.
BTC moves in an upward trend channel and then the trend at this timeframe is up. This is because we make bottoms that are higher every time as well as tops which are higher.
Twice whales or big funds have intervened to support the price. So these were not pump and dump movements in retrospect but manipulated prices.
The huge volume testifies that these were not small investors who set up this action. So the stakes are clearly higher for the larger funds.
Plan:
Stay long as long as the price stays in the trend channel with a stop (at the moment) of 35524. First target is 38500, then possibly a drop back into the rising channel and then another attack on the blue trend line which has then also become an inverted head shoulder formation. If there is a breakout above and a retest, expand positions as the next target is then 45000. Possibly the old ATH will then also be retested.
The green trajectory is the possible scenario. A breakout from the trend channel a first sign that the trend has been damaged. The stop protects against a larger drop to 31000 in the first place.
The breakout from the trend channel is dangerous in several ways so you are warned about that. It is not a simple trendline break.
1. We then end up at the neckline of a head end shoulders formation shoulder formation
2. We fall out of the large Rising wedge with points to a target of 31000 USD.
3. The rising trend is broken with a lower bottom and the trend is reversed.
Looking at tge green clusters where big funds bought it would be strange if the price would now go below these clusters. But again, if it happens the trend is reversed.
Dear friends, trading without a stop is a guarantee for big losses in this manipulated volatile market. Make sure to use them!
Please post your reactions and thoughts on this analysis so we can start a interesting discussion! Also check my post about the RSI which has been only lower 4 times in the history of Bitcoin on a 3 day timeframe.
Happy trading and good luck dear friends!