Going "all in" on a Trend reversal prediction.

Feb 26, 2022

BTCUSDT

This is more about what i did in confidence than a strategy but maybe anyone commenting can help understand WHAT CAUSED the trend reversal as opposed to what we find all the time "How to spot a trend reversal"
SO lets get into the story of what happened. Sorry but this is a long one.


•What happened
•my prediction
•what I'll do next

What happened:
I've only been involved in trading for a very short while and by that I mean just a couple of months but I've been spending a lot of time reading charts trying to analyze them and figuring out exactly what are we supposed to be drawing on these charts to come up with our analysis so in a sense it's like studying TA. I've taken my time to actually go through podcasts and videos and instructional information that is presented by actual investors who mean something to the market and people who are CPA's by their trade. It is now February 26th at 10:18 AM but 2 nights ago on February 24th at about 11:30 PM I was staring at the charts and realized that my lines of analysis are not really lining up and I thought it was me.

I erased all my information my support and resistance lines and everything else and I just left a naked chart without even looking at the RSI.

I started drawing some new trend lines and realized they're getting wider at the bottom and narrow at the top all the way at the right side of bitcoin or MANA or cardeno or ENJ. In essence the entire crypto market that I was looking at all had the same exact analysis and the same exact trend lines being drawn being drawn or in this case redrawn.

I decided to turn on my 100 moving average which I almost never use and use and I commonly use the 21 the 50 and the 200 moving average. I noticed Something happening with the 21 and how it relates to the 50 and the 100. So I started to look backwards in time at the same stock market and look for the same instance related to the arlimited to the article what's happening with buying selling volume and so on.

The bottom line is ultimately I predicted a trend reversal Several hours before it took place and I was feeling very confident about it so I took my entire portfolio and I went all in on 2 stocks.

I noticed that I had about 10 minutes of a climb where I could buy now and over the next 10 minutes I can sell and still make some small gain even enough just to cover my trade fees. But I wanted to take the next 10 minutes and run a deep analysis as far as I can go on the little bit that I understand and try and figure out how high will it go. Again like I said I was confident that there was a trend reversal. But I wanted to know how far is it going to go as it goes up. I looked at the history of the same related tread reversals on all of the same socks and they covered basically 1000 pips 1000 pips on an upward trend and then lasted in that range anywhere from 2 and a 1/2 days to 9 days.

My Prediction:
So at this point I ended up setting my stop limit settings To sell me back 80% of the investment in each stock after reaches roughly 950 pips above my entry point. I'm leaving the other 20% in there because I'm guessing that it's goingna go up 950 at least but if it continues rising after that I still want to have some steak in it. It's not that I'm going to lose that 20% because even if it drops down I've actually set a stop limit order or a stop loss quarter so that dips down to beyond a certain point it's just gonna sell it all back to me anyway and the only thing I'll lose is about .70% on the trade fee.

This all took place 11:30 PM 2 nights ago so the next morning around 7 Ami woke up and I looked at my charts that I was vested in and realized that almost to the hour I predicted it correctly I was off by about 45 minutes I thought it was gonna happen at 3:30 AM it actually happened above 4:17 AM the reversal was solid and it continued to climb and it continued to climb I saw it 3 hours later.

I'm guessing that this trend will take the next 2 days to complete this 1000 pip move so this is a very long move.

What I'll do next:
Like I said my stop limit order is going to sell me back 80% of the gains on everything that I vested it and leave 20% inside of These markets.
I have a feeling that they'll continue climbing after that 1000 pit move but I'm not sure how far. So what I'll do next is use the equity of that 20% and use it for scalping on the way up and on the way down. The only way that I'll know whether it's going to continue on that trend above the moving averages is I'm going to watch the 21 moving average and see if it starts getting close again to the 50. But within that time frame all need to be lined up the 21 on top 50 in the center the 100 below that and a 200 below that however if any one of them show signs of movement where the 21 will cross the 50 I'll wait till it gets to the 100 And look for myself position.

All in all this will create initially a very long by position that will last at least 3 or 4 days to complete the 1st 80% and then a short buy position or a shorter term by position position that I'll have to watch closely.

If you have any questions about what is going to happen next.... feel free to ask below.