Short

Deep into the abyss

Updated

We did get a bearish engulfing candlestick on the hourly timeframe. This happened basically out from the resistance indicating a continuation of the downard trend!!!

Macd has also flipped bearish on the daily and the rsi is indicating a sell signal

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I went in with a 10x trade

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Since the price has made lower highs I have moved the stop loss down and can only lose about 4% while having the potential to make about 60%

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Using the fib retracement from the bottom at 15k to the top at 25k we have the golden zone in the 0,618 at about 19k.

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Even though the golden zone for retracement is at about 19k, I am only shorting down to the next key support zone at about 21500

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Looking at the hourly timeframe it looks like we are in a bear flag. This is typically a continuation pattern.

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We also got a bullish hammer on the hourly timeframe which was followed by some very small indecisive candlesticks indicating that the bullish hammer is most likely to fail and that the bear flag is in play

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The 4 hourly indecisive candlestick is making me a bit nervous but looking at the other times this has happened in the trend it has failed. I think the bears has proved whos in control

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It looks like the bear flag is breaking to the upside but we still ned hourly confirmation

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The bear flag only has two touching points with the lows so this could potentially be a decending triangle. Typically breaking to the downside

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We did get a fakeout on the hourly with a double rejection in that area. Further decline is expected

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Keep in mind that the price has not tested the resistance in a good manner. The price does not have to do this (thats why I went in with the short) but it could happen

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Now we have gotten the brakout on the hourly but it is not as prominent as I would want to see so I am still short

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I told you guys that the candlestick on the breakout was not prominent enough and we have now gotten a bearish engulfing candlestick on the hourly. This is indicating further downard movement.

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I think that the previously mentioned trendline now has been invalidated because of all of the fakeouts. We are still seeing lower highs and higher lows (typically a continuation pattern) but these trendlines would be weak because they only have two touching points. I still expect the price to move down based on the bearish engulfing candlestick.

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We still need to see an hourly close beneath the previous wicks in order for the price to really plunge

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As we can see on the last hourly close there are buyers in the area down where the wick is, but it is very common for the price to backtest that area.

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Since the bulls seemed to show some action I placed my stoploss back to the original place before getting stopped out. I would like to see a 4 hourly confirmation.

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We did get a 4 hourly bullish engulfing candlestick but since we are back in the micro resistance zone I am holding the position a little bit longer. We are also seeing signs of exhaustion on the lower time frames. Specially thinking about the 15 minutes

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We did as well get a long wick on the daily time frame and it is very common for the price to at least retest that area.

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Keep in mind that the price has to retrace before continuing on its way. If we do get an hourly bearish engulfing candlestick I am sticking to the original plan.

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We did get a bearish engulfing candlestick out from the micro resistance indicating further downward movement. See you deep down in the abyss

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Looks like I was wrong about the last bearish engulfing candlestick (because it was not prominent enough). But I am keeping the stop loss where it is because of a strong downwardsloping resistance line.

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From now on I will stop commenting every single move and let the results speak for itself

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And when it comes to the long wicks I meant that it is common for the price to later on backtest the area, but it is actually a sign that there are buyers down there trying to push the price up.

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Long wicks indicate that there are either lost of buyers or sellers in the area*
Thats why the daily candlestick is concerning me a bit

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Lots*

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But I think that the downward sloping resistance line and the weekly close will bring us down

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Okay so I am going to go on a ramble once again. So in my opinion the trendline got invalidated by the price and now we have gotten a big wick candlestick on the hourly that is indicating a trend reversal (bearish) and there is also a double rejection in that area (bearish). We also have an indecisive candlestick on the 4 hourly (bearish)

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I got wicked out and now the price is going to get rejected from the macro zone

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But we still have to wait for confirmation

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If we just slice through the resistance like butter then we have to go long

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We are now looking to get a 4 hourly confirmation to the downside and I would have taken the risk of getting in on the shorter timeframes looking for placing the stop loss as a minimal to no risk trade

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It was stupid to take the risk of not placing my stop loss there last time

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The price still needs to take out the wicks on the smaller timeframes tho

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Now sellers are making sings of exhaustion which could lead us back into the resistance zone

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As anticipated we did get back into the support. We now need a prominent break on either side to go bull or bear. You could say that the price is currently at a breaking point. Either we make it or break it deep down into the crypto abyss.

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We do have a big indecisive red candlestick on the daily so we are more likely to get down deep into the abyss

Madmantrades

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