Fall drive for $55

Aug 31, 2017

CL1! has almost completed the 50% retracement to $45.29 ($46.26 on the December contract), setting up a fall seasonal drive towards higher prices, specifically a challenge to the $55 level. Expecting a choppy but steep drive towards key resistance levels, with weak back tests on low volume. Reversal signs are appearing on the daily chart but Heiken Ashi remains bearish, RSI not yet oversold, MACD & TSI not yet showing reversal signals. Downward volumes remain high so its too early to enter this trade.Looking for entry once trend reversal confirmed on the daily charts in the $46.70 - $47.25 range for the December contract.

Hourly early warning reversal signs:
-Lower low hit, then reversed immediately and failed past prior low 3 times - key 2B trend reversal signal
-Reversal failed at 100MA and trend line. (trend remains intact)
-Lower lows continue to be made but rate of change dropping to zero (trend remains intact but failing)
-Most recent minor high has been breached (trend failing)


Entry once 2B reversal confirmed with prices above $47.80 and 100 MA breached on the hourly. Watching for prices to drop in the short term until RSI moves into oversold, MACD/TSI crossed as confirmation on the daily charts. Expect this to occur on September 5 or 6

Sep 1, 2017

Trade active

Back test to key support line on hourly and turned back up. The trading challenge is a holiday weekend with North Korea twist. Unexpected events should only push oil higher unless there is a "friendly bond" formed between Trump and NK.

Sep 1, 2017

Note

Late Friday price action before a long weekend: back tested to hourly trend line, trend line holding firm. Narrow end of day & end of week range on lower volume.

Sep 5, 2017

Note

I'm looking for weak back tests to continue on low volume. Good long entry point to build position.

Sep 5, 2017

Note

Wave 1 complete. Expecting weak retracement to 48-48.50 (December contract) on low volume to set up strong 3rd wave beyond $52

Oct 2, 2017

Trade closed: target reached

Wave 3 went beyond targets, increased extended retracement risk. Closed trade.

Oct 29, 2017

Note

The final challenge to $55 ii underway. Expect ranges to narrow after Fridays upshot as we close in on $55. I am watching for the top around $55 and then a new short entry in the next 5 days. I will post a new idea shortly.

Nov 1, 2017

Trade closed: target reached

Full $55 target reached. New Cl down cycle around the corner. Will post new short trade soon.

Nov 1, 2017

Trade closed: target reached