Catch the correction - Right shoulder drop to $59
Updated
New short entry on the hourly - $62.78
Stop $63.50
Short term target $61
Mid term target $59
Risk-Reward - 5:1 exceptional
Long term uptrend has been broken, short term down trendline remains intact before ultimate drive back up (maybe from $61 or $59 base). Daily - bullish pinbar formed, but prices have not accelerated up but rather moved up hesitantly. This is a short term short trade until the bullish trend resumes somewhere between $61 and $59.
2 Pinbars in last 2 days - bullish signal but no strong follow through, a sign of weakness.
Elliot Wave - A-B-C correction in process, expect wave C down to $59 level but choppy path down.
Head and shoulders pattern - Hourly shows a clear right shoulder with a neckline at key support level of $61
Price action - We have a hourly minorhead & shoulders down trend form a new lower low, followed by a 61.8% retrace.Now finishing the right should of a down trend head and shoulders on a longer time frame. Good low risk entry point for new decline.
On the hourly, my target short range $63 - $63.50 has been hit and I'm seeing topping action at $62.81 key resistance level and no further stops being hit. I had thought that bear stops might have been at the $62.84 level, but nothing was triggered, so maybe they have already been hit which drove prices to $62.80 range today.
Stop $63.50
Short term target $61
Mid term target $59
Risk-Reward - 5:1 exceptional
Long term uptrend has been broken, short term down trendline remains intact before ultimate drive back up (maybe from $61 or $59 base). Daily - bullish pinbar formed, but prices have not accelerated up but rather moved up hesitantly. This is a short term short trade until the bullish trend resumes somewhere between $61 and $59.
2 Pinbars in last 2 days - bullish signal but no strong follow through, a sign of weakness.
Elliot Wave - A-B-C correction in process, expect wave C down to $59 level but choppy path down.
Head and shoulders pattern - Hourly shows a clear right shoulder with a neckline at key support level of $61
Price action - We have a hourly minorhead & shoulders down trend form a new lower low, followed by a 61.8% retrace.Now finishing the right should of a down trend head and shoulders on a longer time frame. Good low risk entry point for new decline.
On the hourly, my target short range $63 - $63.50 has been hit and I'm seeing topping action at $62.81 key resistance level and no further stops being hit. I had thought that bear stops might have been at the $62.84 level, but nothing was triggered, so maybe they have already been hit which drove prices to $62.80 range today.
Note
I'm trading the H&S pattern to target the $61 neckline break with a good stop cushion if prices reverse and great risk reward ratio. Clarity should come pretty quickly with London market opening.Note
Right shoulder complete after an initial rise at market open that reversed before hitting my stop. Next target is a challenge to $61.Note
Profit taken a 61.92. Re-entry possible back at $62.50
Note
Right shoulder breakdown after touching just above $62.50. Stalling at $61 neckline where I expect another reversal back up before the final drop to $59.Trade closed: target reached
It is starting to look like the $61 neckline may hold intact and $61 may be the low of this pattern. A bullish pennant is forming with far more upside potential if $61 holds. I closed this trade and deep profit and will setup for the next bull run, either from $61 neckline holding firm OR if prices drop, looking for the $59 entry area.Note
Possible that neckline is about to break as there was no pop overnight in Tokyo or London - new short added to target the final C wave drop below $61 at a good risk reward ratioShort- $61.18
Target $59 or lower
Stop - $61.50 R/R - (0.32 : 2.18) = 6.81
Trade closed: stop reached
Stop hit, strong profit but trend reversed before $59.
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