Deutsche Bank (DBK): Earnings beat but loan losses double

Oct 28

We missed the optimal entry for Deutsche Bank (DBK), but the analysis was accurate overall. The earnings report showed some resilience with a revenue increase of 5.2% year-over-year, reaching €7.50 billion, slightly above analyst expectations of €7.30 billion. The stock reacted with a modest dip, but nothing significant. However, Deutsche Bank reported a notable rise in loan losses, which doubled to €494 million in Q3 2024 compared to €245 million a year ago, aligning closely with the €482 million forecasted by analysts.



From a technical standpoint, our primary count still appears valid, though it’s a bit on the lower side. This could indicate that wave 3 might not be the longest wave in this count, which is atypical but possible as long as it’s not the shortest.

We’re targeting a potential endpoint for wave 5 within the HTF resistance zone, aligning with the 50-61.8% Fibonacci extension level, where we could look for a long position if the setup confirms. We will continue to monitor DBK closely as this potential target level nears and adjust accordingly.

Nov 6

Note

Since the last update two weeks ago DBK has followed the analys very well and has now pushed above the trend channel to the HTF resistance zone. The candle that we can now see is really crucial and if it ends like this then it is not looking good for DBK and we could be right with this being the last push even though we haven't pushed above the current level of the wave 3 but there are so called truncated fifths which are exactly that. Those kind of wave structures are rare but completely unlikely with a probability between 10 to 15%.

If DBK is losing 15.15€ the bearish trend would be confirmed for us and as long as DBK isn't braking above the high time frame resistance we are keeping this scenario as the one that is most likely currently. ✅