USD Indx - Some thoughts on dollar's bullish momentum
Daily:
If I am right, we are in the 5th Elliott wave now. Have we seen the wave top, or is it still ahead of us?
Ichimoku setup is still bullish for the long term. The only question is what happens to the momentum in short term, so wether we'll see this a wave down (Elliott A wave) next or we have to still wait for a higher point to finish wave 5? Some indicators suggest that even if DXY spikes a bit more, it can be followed by a pull back very soon.
MACD closing in to its signal line, with bearish divergence that has been developing since early October. Slow Stoch is overbought too, so any time we see a bearish cross on these two indicators same time, Price will come lower again.
86,20-86,40 is a good support now.
4 Hrs:
Stopped trending on the lower time frame. ADX is down, no DMI signal. Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou averages stay together, all lines are flat. (100 WMA is also catching up to them). Chikou Span is at price candles. Evereything shows it is consolidating. However soon we'll likely see a sharp move to one direction. Hard to make a bet which way it will go, as based on that Price is still above the Kumo, we should assume next momentum will be bullish again. But if we look at recent lower highs and the Slow Stoch waves, then we have quite some chance to see the opposite.
Conclusion: when you can't decide the direction, don't trade it on any side as speculative. Wait until you see a more clear signal. Key support to watch both for bulls and bearish swing traders is 87,40. A break below it would bring a counter trend wave, with first stop ard 86,20-40. On the top side it is quite simple, close above 88,00 could likely push Price higher to extend the 5th wave to ard 89,00
If I am right, we are in the 5th Elliott wave now. Have we seen the wave top, or is it still ahead of us?
Ichimoku setup is still bullish for the long term. The only question is what happens to the momentum in short term, so wether we'll see this a wave down (Elliott A wave) next or we have to still wait for a higher point to finish wave 5? Some indicators suggest that even if DXY spikes a bit more, it can be followed by a pull back very soon.
MACD closing in to its signal line, with bearish divergence that has been developing since early October. Slow Stoch is overbought too, so any time we see a bearish cross on these two indicators same time, Price will come lower again.
86,20-86,40 is a good support now.
4 Hrs:
Stopped trending on the lower time frame. ADX is down, no DMI signal. Tenkan, Kijun and Senkou averages stay together, all lines are flat. (100 WMA is also catching up to them). Chikou Span is at price candles. Evereything shows it is consolidating. However soon we'll likely see a sharp move to one direction. Hard to make a bet which way it will go, as based on that Price is still above the Kumo, we should assume next momentum will be bullish again. But if we look at recent lower highs and the Slow Stoch waves, then we have quite some chance to see the opposite.
Conclusion: when you can't decide the direction, don't trade it on any side as speculative. Wait until you see a more clear signal. Key support to watch both for bulls and bearish swing traders is 87,40. A break below it would bring a counter trend wave, with first stop ard 86,20-40. On the top side it is quite simple, close above 88,00 could likely push Price higher to extend the 5th wave to ard 89,00
