The U.S. Dollar Index is currently in a consolidation phase around the 104.50 level after a sharp drop from the recent highs. Let’s break down what the technicals are signaling:
1. Bearish Structure 📉: • The index has been trading within a descending channel, which indicates a prevailing bearish trend. • A significant Cross Doji candle at the top hints at a potential reversal, followed by strong bearish momentum. 2. Key Levels to Watch 🔍: • Resistance Zone: The DXY is consolidating below the 104.60 level, which is acting as a key resistance. Multiple rejections around this area could signify strong selling pressure. • Support Zone: The next major support lies around the 103.60 level, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel. 3. EMA Dynamic Resistance 💡: • The 50-period EMA (green line) is currently acting as a dynamic resistance. A sustained move below this EMA can add further downside pressure. 4. Potential Scenario 🔮: • If the DXY fails to break above the 104.60 resistance, we could see a drop towards the 104.00 level initially. • A break below the 104.00 support might accelerate the move toward the 103.60 zone, completing the bearish leg.
📉 Bearish Outlook: Unless we see a breakout above the consolidation zone and a close above the descending channel, the bias remains bearish for the DXY in the short term.
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