ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Preparation (Feb21-24)
Last week, the S&P 500 closed 0.30% lower after moving within a range of 127 points. Despite closing below the 9 and near the 21 EMAs, the price still remains above the 200 sma and 55 ema. It has just completed two inside weeks after breaking above the long-term downward trendline. The S&P is currently consolidating in a 140pt range just above the downward trendline and 618 Fib RT. If the trendline support breaks, a move down to the 200 sma is likely, but if it holds, a move back up to the Dec 13th high and higher time frame 618 Fib RT is possible. The upcoming week includes more econ data releases including GDP, FOMC minutes and PCE. There is also some highly followed earnings reports from HD, NVDA, WMT, COIN & BABA due out. Relative strength of S&P sectors has been mixed with XLE falling back 6% while the XLY & XLU gained more than 1% each. The high volume of zero DTE options is creating wild two-way price action as seen with the multiple 100% retracements over the past few weeks so a break from the current 140-point range could lead to either a massive rally or sell-off, depending on the catalyst.
As usual I will update this chart throughout the week. Please like and share my post if you find it helpful or interesting. Thank you and trade well.
• S&P dropped 0.30% last week after trading in a range of 127 points.
• Price remains above the 200 sma & 55 ema, but closed below the 9 near the 21 ema.
• S&P has just completed two inside weeks after the break of the long-term downward trendline.
• Price is consolidating in a 140pt range just above the downward trend line & 618 Fib RT.
• A move down to the 200 sma is likely if trendline support is broken.
• If the trendline support holds a move back up to the Dec 13th high and the higher time frame 618 Fib RT is possible
• Another heavy week of econ data is due out this week including GDP, FOMC Minutes & PCE.
• Earnings continues with highly followed reports from HD, NVDA, WMT, SQ, COIN, TOL & BABA
• Relative strength from S&P Sectors was mixed with XLE dropping back 6% and XLY & XLU both gaining > 1%
• High volume of zero DTE options is creating wild 2-way price action as seen with the multiple 100% price swings the past few weeks.
• A break from the current 140-point range could lead to either a massive rally or sell off depending on the catalyst.
• The S&P is seasonally weak from mid February to early March.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday US S&P PMI Flash, US Existing Homes Sales
Wednesday FOMC Minutes & Fed’s Williams Speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobs Claims, US GDP Estimate, US PCE Prelim. & EIA Crude Inventories + Fed’s Bostic Speaks
Friday US Consumer Spending, US PCE, US New Homes Sales & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday CHK, COIN, CZR, FANG, HD, IR, MDT, PANW, PSA, RBA, TOL, WMT, O
Wednesday BIDU, EBAY, ETSY, IQ, LCID, NVDA, RIO, TDOC, TJX, TNL, U, WING
Thursday ADSK, BABA, BHC, CWK, DPZ, EIX, DISH, EOG, GPC, INTU, KDP, MRNA, MNST, NEM, PLNT, PZZA, SQ, VIPS, W, YETI
Friday BRK.B, CM
BULLISH NOTES
ES above 55 ema and 200 SMA
ES above long-term descending trend line
Break from 2 inside weeks would be bullish
Current pattern may be seen as large bullish flag
Potential positive reaction to FOMC minutes & PCE
Potential positive reaction to earnings
BEARISH NOTES
ES closed below 9 ema near the 21 ema
ES rejected at the Dec 13th pivot high
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer-term support
Potential 200 SMA price magnet
Potential negative reaction to FOMC minutes & PCE
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Seasonally weak period of February for S&P
As usual I will update this chart throughout the week. Please like and share my post if you find it helpful or interesting. Thank you and trade well.
• S&P dropped 0.30% last week after trading in a range of 127 points.
• Price remains above the 200 sma & 55 ema, but closed below the 9 near the 21 ema.
• S&P has just completed two inside weeks after the break of the long-term downward trendline.
• Price is consolidating in a 140pt range just above the downward trend line & 618 Fib RT.
• A move down to the 200 sma is likely if trendline support is broken.
• If the trendline support holds a move back up to the Dec 13th high and the higher time frame 618 Fib RT is possible
• Another heavy week of econ data is due out this week including GDP, FOMC Minutes & PCE.
• Earnings continues with highly followed reports from HD, NVDA, WMT, SQ, COIN, TOL & BABA
• Relative strength from S&P Sectors was mixed with XLE dropping back 6% and XLY & XLU both gaining > 1%
• High volume of zero DTE options is creating wild 2-way price action as seen with the multiple 100% price swings the past few weeks.
• A break from the current 140-point range could lead to either a massive rally or sell off depending on the catalyst.
• The S&P is seasonally weak from mid February to early March.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday US S&P PMI Flash, US Existing Homes Sales
Wednesday FOMC Minutes & Fed’s Williams Speaks
Thursday US Initial Jobs Claims, US GDP Estimate, US PCE Prelim. & EIA Crude Inventories + Fed’s Bostic Speaks
Friday US Consumer Spending, US PCE, US New Homes Sales & University of Mich. Sentiment
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday US Market Closed
Tuesday CHK, COIN, CZR, FANG, HD, IR, MDT, PANW, PSA, RBA, TOL, WMT, O
Wednesday BIDU, EBAY, ETSY, IQ, LCID, NVDA, RIO, TDOC, TJX, TNL, U, WING
Thursday ADSK, BABA, BHC, CWK, DPZ, EIX, DISH, EOG, GPC, INTU, KDP, MRNA, MNST, NEM, PLNT, PZZA, SQ, VIPS, W, YETI
Friday BRK.B, CM
BULLISH NOTES
ES above 55 ema and 200 SMA
ES above long-term descending trend line
Break from 2 inside weeks would be bullish
Current pattern may be seen as large bullish flag
Potential positive reaction to FOMC minutes & PCE
Potential positive reaction to earnings
BEARISH NOTES
ES closed below 9 ema near the 21 ema
ES rejected at the Dec 13th pivot high
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing of longer-term support
Potential 200 SMA price magnet
Potential negative reaction to FOMC minutes & PCE
Potential negative reaction to earnings
Seasonally weak period of February for S&P
Comment:
ES is trading below it's Friday low to open the week. Setting up for a potential measured move/compound correction into the 618 at 4030. Possible extended move deeper into the 1.618 X / 200 SMA.
Comment:
ES has completed the compound correction into the 618 and 1.27 X. Look for a bounce here. If the level fails a test of the 200 SMA and 1.618 X is likely.
Comment:
ES Barely paused yesterday at the 618 Fib / 1.272 Fib X. Expected at least a pause but price sliced right though. Now sitting just above the lower target zone of the 200 SMA / 1. 618 FibX.
Comment:
ES fell to the 200 sma / 1.618 Fib X zone yesterday and eventually found support. Breaking from lower time frame base to start the session. Near term upside target would be the daily 21 ema. Retest of recent lows possible if 30 min ema cloud support fails.
Comment:
30 minute cloud support failed so retest of recent lows underway. Break of the 200 sma and upward trendline would be very bearish although a double bottom off the 200 sma is a strong possibility.
Comment:
ES had a wild reversal into the close yesterday but has now retraced more than 100% of the up move after the PCE data drop. Now trading below the 200 SMA and 1.618 Fib X. Down side target is the grey box and 3900 level. Must break lower 618 Fib first.
Be prepared for an early short covering bounce at the cash open before any move lower. Failure to fill less that 50% of the overnight gap would be bearish. Above 50% look for full gap fill.
Be prepared for an early short covering bounce at the cash open before any move lower. Failure to fill less that 50% of the overnight gap would be bearish. Above 50% look for full gap fill.
