ES/SPY Weekend Levels & Trade Preparation (Feb 27=Mar3)
The S&P 500 experienced a 2.73% loss last week, with prices closing below the 9/21/55 EMAs and 200 SMA. All S&P sectors closed the week red, with XLY and XLRE finishing down more than 4%, while the strongest sector, XLP, dropped only .04% on the week. The S&P 500 will start the week near the 4000 psychological level and is back below the long-term downward trendline and the ascending trendline drawn from the Oct 13 low. Key support below is the 50% Fib RT and the Dec 22nd low (green box), while key resistance above is the 200 SMA and the lower time frame 618 Fib RT (red box). The narrative has shifted from the potential "Feb pivot" to "higher for longer" and a possible 50 basis point rate hike. This week's economic data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI, and Jobless Claims. Earnings reports are also expected from big retailers such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN, as well as high-followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH, and FSLR. The next FOMC rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The S&P 500 has traded lower prior to the decision in four out of the previous seven rate announcements.
• S&P posted a 2.73% loss last week after trading in a range of 138 points
• Price closed below the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week red with XLY & XLRE finishing down more than 4%. Strongest sector was XLP dropping only .04% on the week.
• S&P will start the week near the 4000 psychological level
• The S&P is back below the long term downward trendline & the ascending trendline drawn from the Oct 13 low.
• Key support below is the 50 % Fib RT and the Dec 22nd low (green box)
• Key resistance above is the 200 sma & the lower time frame 618 Fib RT (red box)
• Narrative has flipped from potential “Feb pivot” back to “higher for longer” and potential 50 basis point rate hike
• This week’s econ data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI as well as Jobless Claims
• Earnings this week continue with reports from big retails such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN as well as reports from high followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH & FSLR.
• The next FOMC Rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The NQ traded lower prior to the decision 4 out of the previous 7 rate announcements.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Durable Goods & Fed’s Jefferson speaks
Tuesday Canadian GDP & Fed’s Goolsbee speaks
Wednesday S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Labour Costs & Fed’s Waller & Kashkari speak
Friday US ISM Services PMI & Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman & Barkin speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, LAZR, OXY, UHS, WDAY, ZM
Tuesday A, AAP, ADT, AMC, BNS, FSLR, HPQ, MNST, MQ, RIVN, ROST, SJM, TGT
Wednesday CELH, CRM, DLTR, HGV, KSS, LOW, NIO, OKTA, PLUG, PSTG, RY, SNOW, VEEV, STWD, WB, WEN, SPLK
Thursday AVGO, BBY, BILI, BUD, CHPT, CNQ, COST, CPG, DELL, HPE, JWN, KR, M, MRVL, SFM, TD, ZS
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
Price has made higher low from Oct 13th low
Potential to recover the 200 SMA quickly
Potential positive reaction to econ data
Potential positive reaction to earnings
From the 26th of the month to the 6th of the following month is a bullish period
Stoch (5,1) is almost Oversold
BEARISH NOTES
S&P closed below 9/21/55 ema
S&P rejected at the Dec 13th high
S&P closed below the 200 SMA & downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to econ. data
Potential negative reaction to earnings
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing off longer term support
End of February through beginning of March is seasonally bearish
• S&P posted a 2.73% loss last week after trading in a range of 138 points
• Price closed below the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week red with XLY & XLRE finishing down more than 4%. Strongest sector was XLP dropping only .04% on the week.
• S&P will start the week near the 4000 psychological level
• The S&P is back below the long term downward trendline & the ascending trendline drawn from the Oct 13 low.
• Key support below is the 50 % Fib RT and the Dec 22nd low (green box)
• Key resistance above is the 200 sma & the lower time frame 618 Fib RT (red box)
• Narrative has flipped from potential “Feb pivot” back to “higher for longer” and potential 50 basis point rate hike
• This week’s econ data includes US Durable Goods, Manufacturing & Services PMI as well as Jobless Claims
• Earnings this week continue with reports from big retails such as M, LOW, COST, TGT, JWN as well as reports from high followed growth companies such as ZM, NIO, CRM, SNOW, CELH & FSLR.
• The next FOMC Rate decision is scheduled for Mar 21/22. The NQ traded lower prior to the decision 4 out of the previous 7 rate announcements.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Durable Goods & Fed’s Jefferson speaks
Tuesday Canadian GDP & Fed’s Goolsbee speaks
Wednesday S&P ISM Manufacturing PMI, EIA Crude Inventories
Thursday US Initial Jobless Claims, US Labour Costs & Fed’s Waller & Kashkari speak
Friday US ISM Services PMI & Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman & Barkin speak
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday ACAD, LAZR, OXY, UHS, WDAY, ZM
Tuesday A, AAP, ADT, AMC, BNS, FSLR, HPQ, MNST, MQ, RIVN, ROST, SJM, TGT
Wednesday CELH, CRM, DLTR, HGV, KSS, LOW, NIO, OKTA, PLUG, PSTG, RY, SNOW, VEEV, STWD, WB, WEN, SPLK
Thursday AVGO, BBY, BILI, BUD, CHPT, CNQ, COST, CPG, DELL, HPE, JWN, KR, M, MRVL, SFM, TD, ZS
Friday Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
Price has made higher low from Oct 13th low
Potential to recover the 200 SMA quickly
Potential positive reaction to econ data
Potential positive reaction to earnings
From the 26th of the month to the 6th of the following month is a bullish period
Stoch (5,1) is almost Oversold
BEARISH NOTES
S&P closed below 9/21/55 ema
S&P rejected at the Dec 13th high
S&P closed below the 200 SMA & downward trendline
Potential negative reaction to econ. data
Potential negative reaction to earnings
10 year Yield rising again
DXY is bouncing off longer term support
End of February through beginning of March is seasonally bearish
Comment:
Quick look at the ES on the weekly. The ES looks more bearish than the NQ on the higher time frame having dropped back below the downward trendline and threatening to break the lower ascending trendline.
Comment:
$ES_F finding resistance at the top of the red box early yesterday then support at the 200 SMA. May trade in sideways fashion until one side wins (618 Fib above - 200 SMA below).
Comment:
Sorry late on this post. Have been taping a lot of video lately of my live trading so getting distracted. Two way price action to start but the the overhead resistance proved to be too much and price has pushed below Friday's low. Green arrows are the targets below if bearish momentum continues. ES currently weaker than NQ. Recession narrative seem to be dominating. So higher rates + weaker economy driving things lower. Mega caps weak today as well.
Comment:
$ES_F Broke yesterday's low during the overnight session. Lower targets still in play. Negative reaction so far from the AM payroll data and $TSLA is also weighing on the market. $SPY
Comment:
$ES_F has bounced to start the morning. Now above the 50% point of the gap down. I lean bullish above the 50% for a full gap fill. That said price must get through the Friday Pivot low labeled on the chart. Over all trend still down but a full gap fill is still possible b/f bearish continuation.
Comment:
Late post here sorry. $ES_F had the massive rally yesterday and this morning trading back above the 200 sma and the daily 9ema. It is now coming into the top of the resistance box which lines up with the ascending trendline and the 21 ema. I would expect resistance here. If price manages to get above the red box and hold it would be very bullish.
