ETH INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN - 21/03/19 ** IN REDACTED FORM **
What has occurred since our last INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN FOR ETH ?
OUR LAST BREAKDOWN ENDED WITH THE FOLLOWING CONCLUSIONS :
To conclude:
1. Expect bearish activity to continue on the whole and price is restricted to the upside to a maximum price of 122$. Even more so in real time, we can constrict this even further to 118-120$.
2. Following a rejection from these levels, then our targets to the downside for support lay at 111$, 107$ and 103$.
3. A break of final support at 103$ will signal to us a drop to 80$ support once again but we must realise that 103$ support is very strong and a break of this level is least likely.
4. Confirmation prices for SHORTS - 115$ IN THE SCENARIO OF A STRAIGHT DROP AND 118$ IN THE SCENARIO OF A REJECTION FROM 120-122$ RESISTANCE ZONES.
REVIEW:
1. Bearish activity was continued and price restrictions to the upside of 122$ were maintained.
2. Following the rejection from 122$, we saw ETH price drop to our targets of 111$,107$, and 103$.
3. Final break of support at 103$ was not achieved. As stated in the conclusion it will be the most difficult to break through 103$ price floor.
4. CONFIRMATION PRICE OF 118$ WAS USED AND WORKED EXACTLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH A REJECTION FROM 120-122$ SELL WALL!
We will do the top down style analysis that you should have become accustomed to by now to look at possible price direction.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE DAILY CHART FOR ETH ?
- At the minute, price is currently at 139$ and we have experienced a rejection from resistance trend line. We can see that EMA 200 is currently at 190$ and this should be set as an EXTREME upper boundary for price. In retrospect, you will find that extreme ceilings for price are in reality maxed out at 175$. Therefore, you can’t help but think that price will probably experience some sideway and downward movement until EMA at least reaches this 175$ mark. Looking at our MA’s we can see that they are currently being used for support, and a price break below 133$ will be a solid final confirmation for price heading towards the lower end of the wedge and the supporting end of this structure at approximately 125$. In reality, as you will see in the remainder of this breakdown, a break below 136$ will in fact be the first confirmation in the bearish direction to the supporting end of the triangular formation at 125$. Moreover, we can also see on our price chart, that the daily candle is currently very bearish after a doji reversal candle on the daily chart. Lastly, we can see that a break of formation at 125$ will lead to a drop firstly to 103$ support and after that is broken, 80$ but if we measure the height of the formation, after break it leads to a final price of support at 42$ and this is if we break to the downside. Its also important to note that a break to the upside will take us to price levels above 190$, and will indicate a break of EMA 200 on the daily and thus for this matter that is unrealistic.
- Looking at our momentum indicators such as RSI, we can see that after a rejection from the 60 level on RSI, we look like we are heading towards at least 40 level or 28 level support on RSI ; it is also positive to note that this resistance point at 60 level has historically held. Looking at RSI/ROC we can see that we have experienced a rejection from the 50 level on this indicator and tendency to go from here to the 39 level is high.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 4 HOURLY CHART FOR ETH ?
- We can see that following a rejection we are attempting to break MA’s support at current price and in real time, we have probably broken it on the 4 hourly chart. We can see that EMA resistance on the 4 hourly lays at 136$ and a break of this will be first indication/confirmation of shorts to 125$ firstly. Thereafter, 133$ is our final confirmation price for shorts after a break of 133$ price floor. MA’s have been completely demolished through!
- Once we look at Momentum indicators, we can see that we are desperately trying to use 28 level on RSI as support but we can also see that there needs to be a trickledown effect on all timeframes if this bearish activity is to hold to our set levels. On the daily, to the downside support is found at 28 or 40 level and therefore, indicating that 4 hourly RSI needs to and can drop below 28 level support. Looking at the RSI/ROC indicator, we can see that there is tendency for us to head back to 39 level support on RSI/ROC.
WHAT CAN WE SEE ON THE 1 HOURLY CHART FOR ETH ?
- Again, we can see bearish price action on the price chart leading us to see multiple bearish candles from highs of 142$ and a rejection from this level has led us to break neckline of price range formation at 138$. Looking closely at the hourly supporting trend line, we can see that even 122$ is a target for supporting trend line and a break of 122$ will be final confirmation price on the bearish side to 103$ - given that the wicked 118$ support doesn’t hold as it always does. In order for us to see real bearish activity, 140$ ceiling must hold with previous supports turning into resistances.
- Furthermore, looking at our momentum indicators on the hourly, as expected with the trickledown effect on momentum indicators, we have broken 28 level RSI on the hourly and next will be the 4 hourly before the daily heads there for support. On our RSI/ROC indicator we can see that the hourly is looking to break through 39 level support on this indicator and a break through this level will lead to 4 hourly heading down to 39 level following the trickledown effect on momentum indicators and us finding our way to supporting trend line and a break of 133$ final bearish indication/confirmation price.
TO CONCLUDE:
1. After a break of 133$, we can expect a retracement up to 125$ and thereafter to 122$. Second confirmation price at 135$ break to the downside.
2. Break below 125-122$ support range will lead to price action being able to fall as low as 42$ but realistically 103$ and 122$ are solid supports.
3. To the upside, a break above 145$ will lead us to upside targets of 155$ and 165$ respectively. These are caps for bullish activity in any given scenario with the most extreme cap in bullish behaviour at 175$.
4. Our final buy zones of 40$ and major support at 80$ still hold.
** PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ANALYSIS IS IN A REDACTED FORM, AND FULL FORM FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES CAN ONLY BE SEEN BY PAYING PRIORITY MEMBERS - IF YOU WANT TO LEARN HOW I DO THIS TRANSPARENTLY MESSAGE ME**
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