Long

If This Structure Holds, ETH Can Target $700

Updated

Just a quick long trade idea. Haven't done one of these in a while. Bitcoin dominance is looking a bit overheated, while Ethereum seems into be in a re-accumulation pattern. We can observe higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart as Bitcoin has rallied above 13k. As long as the market holds here, I am targeting the $600-700 range for Ethereum, not seen for quite some time. This is also based on my idea that the 100 day Moving-Average should generally hold during a bull market. If it fails, I may be need to re-assess my bullish view.

Entry: $380-390

Bullish targets/Take profit areas:
$550
$694

Stop Loss: $360

I flip bearish if this structure fails to hold. In that case, I may post a short idea. Ethereum has a lot of room for downside here, so this is not a large position.

Bearish targets:
$373 (100d MA)
$360
$330
$295 (200d MA)
$215

This is not financial advice! Just curious to see how this plays out. This is for speculative, entertainment, and educational purposes only.

-Victor Cobra

Trade active

Note

ETH seems to be struggling to hold the structure. Could be slowing down for a longer period of sideways, during which ETH can test some lower levels again. But we'll see. Bitcoin looks strong, so we might see some alt buying soon, with Dominance near historical resistance.

Note

The structure has technically been broken. Might decide to close manually soon before the stop gets taken out. Dominance is retracing a little as Bitcoin drops and consolidates. Sometimes this is a bullish move, but I don't like how ETH keeps getting met with sellers near the $400 level. However, holding the 100d MA is encouraging. A move down towards the 200d MA is now becoming slightly more likely

Note

This linear trend line is currently holding price down. It appears that Ethereum is forming a triangle between the 100d MA and this downtrend resistance.

Note

On the bearish side, these are the scenarios I'd be looking at

Note

At this point, I would say this trade idea is invalidated, but I will update when stopped out or if I decide to close manually. Doesn't look good for alts. Will be pleasantly surprised if this trade works out.

Note

I'm taking this opportunity to raise my stop loss to above break even - so will lock in some profits, regardless. STOP LOSS is now $393. My reasoning is that this appears to be a true breakout attempt. If ETH dumps below $390-393, I think it's likely to retest $365 again.

Note

Stop loss moved to 398. Still testing the previous parabolic trend as resistance.

Note

The downtrend has been cleared, but as mentioned above, the earlier parabolic trend is still resistance.

Note

If ETH moves up from here, there would be a new parabolic trend.

Note

Oh boy, if this sustains, it will have been worth it to stay in this long position.

Note

Raised stop to 401.98. This is a leveraged trade, so moving the stop to lock in profit is worth it.

Note

Closed half here at $440 to lock in some profit for the time being. Bitcoin could top out for a little bit soon, which may cause alts to retest some lower levels briefly.

Note

Keeping sells for the remaining 50% split between near the final $550 and $700 targets.

Trade closed manually

Closed the rest of the position when stop was reached at $448

Note

I will look for another potential entry, in the $410-420 range. Will watch closely to see if this dip is bought though. I just think there's some potential for downside here, and I'd rather lock in profit first.

Note

Decided to focus on XRP and LTC right now, since I see more aggressive buyer behavior for those two at this time. That's not to say these price targets cannot be reached for ETH! Still holding this one for the long term. These posts are only about trading.

VictorCobra

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