Short

Weekly timeframe - Short EURCAD

Updated

As it can be seen in the chart, I decided to make a big short on this pair.
Technically, I think it's clear why I think this could happen.
Also, I'll put extra chart with daily time-frame in the description with another reason why I did this.

Also, today's ECB's report - it's hawkish, at least that's what they want it to sound like. But, I think the market will show middle finger, and go opposite direction.
Why? They're to slow with interest rate hikes, and current jump in the Euro strength was just "a dead cat bounce".

This is one big position.
I have another with daily time-frame, and more on a 1H time-frame. :)
Go CAD. :D

Trade active

Note

Note

Trade active

Last Friday, February 3rd, was volatile, my stop-loss almost got touched... But luckily, it didn't.
Even if it did, I would open another short position. After all, it was NFP announcement day.
Let see how this week will turn out.
My S/L is on brake even, and I'll move it accordingly - I decided to cancel trailing S/L because this pair at this moment is too volatile. So, I adjust S/L accordingly - always lock up 30-50% of profits.

Note

This is how I see movement of the pair for today.
Yeah, I know... it's ugly approximation, but you get the picture :)

Trade active

Trade is going according to the first projection.
It didn't bounced back yesterday, which is good... It means that the previous range has been broken in the downside, and probably we are now in the downtrend.

Note

Still down.
As @Frankyberry commented, 1.40 area is good to take profits.
However, it depend how big drops are gonna be, I'll adjust my position accordingly.
And write it here, ofc.
Right now, my s/l is not negative, is positive, at 1.446.
I have big position, but I caught the turning point, and I'm giving some breathing space :)

Note

So... S/L was activated yesterday, but I entered for short position again.
Why?
Not so big volume, it was a bounce for up again.
I've put pending order to activate at 1.446, and it did 2 hours later.
New s/l is at 1.447

Note

Big drop... So, this confirms my big bet on CAD.
So, shorting of EURCAD will continue. :)

Note

Looks like price is retracing after the weekend. There will be Eurozone GDP announcement, so the price could retrace and win back this Friday drop.
However, I still continuous drop of this pair.
Good luck!

Trade closed: stop reached

Position is closed manually in the morning, a bit after 02.17h CET, price was 1.43181.
I didn't went short again, decided to wait afternoon and new US data announcements. Maybe I'll wait even the end of the week. I'll keep you posted guys.
In my previous comment, I was not watching my trading platform, because, I don't have alarms warning me when my S/l or T/P has been hit.
My entire idea is to do all the work before putting market/pending orders, and after that only adjust S/L accordingly.
I don't have trading platform on my mobile phone, and I don't follow every few min or even hours what is happening.
Just keep simple procedure: make analysis, check economic calendar, make market/pending order, check it daily once, and, if applicable, adjust S/L.

Cheers!

Note

A lot of data coming today and tomorrow too.
Yesterday decision to postpone another short was a smart one.
We will see today how the market will structure the charts and adopt to it.

Cheers!

Trade active

I see H&S on 15-min and rejection at triple top, so decided to go short.
Since I'm convinced the H&S will be broken, I decided to open position. Usually, I would wait for the pattern to be re-tested.

Be careful, but we should be ok :)

Cheers!

Note

This S/L and T/P on the last char I updated is not really correct, s/l is at 1.4360, t/p 1.43, at least at 1.43 :)

Trade closed: stop reached

Yesterday my t/p was missef by few pips, and s/l was activated, but I had trailing s/l so the position was closed with 0 usd loss. Luckily for me.

Now, since we have hawkish FED, and volatile week, and thanks to lucky 0 USD loss yesterday, I'll skip trade for today, and do my weekend homework before entering any trade.
I think I'll go short on SPY too, I'll probably short futures on S&P 500 :)

Cheers!

Trade active

Trade was activated in the morning, after the European data, sold at 1.44.
It was pending order I put yesterday, and I didn't expected it to be activated today :/
Really volatile...
Be careful!
Cheers!

Note

Direction is still short :)
Position survived last week this bounce back, and went back down. So, I will se how it will go this week, and maybe add another short position.

For now, I have +65% on the account locked in with the first short which was closed.
New position has positive stop loss, on 1.439

Cheers!

Trade closed: stop reached

Positive stop loss reached yesterday evening.

Trade active

Opened another short at 1.443.
S/L at 1.446

Trade closed: stop reached

Ok, looks like s/l was activated.
My overall account is now on +60%.
I'm waiting for better position, and to re-evaluate the current situation. I'll post soon :)

Note

Looks like stuff changed.
It was a bold move, I earned a lot on this particular position.
However, this is a proof of unpredictability of FX markets and how thing can easily changed.

Stay sharp! Watch your position, but don't watch them constantly! And adjust you stop losses accordingly!

jackiecap

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.