Kumowizard
Short

Update - Next wave down

FX:EURNOK   Euro / Norwegian Krone
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7
Weekly:
- Ichimoku gains more bearish momentum. While spot price is still in the Kumo cloud, we have a bearish Senkou Span cross (Kumo twist) 26 weeks ahead. Price turned down sharply from Kijun Sen and made a lower low! All averages point down now (Tenkan, Kijun and their average Senkou A).
- Heikin-Ashi pattern is bearish with strong momentum.
- Major Head & Shoulders pattern may be validated this or next week with neckline break. In this case long term measured target comes around 8,40-8,45.
- EWO ticks into negative zone
- MACD bearish cross below zero!

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish , with support at 9,3250.
- Heikin-Ashi is swing bullish , but the momentum of reactive pull back is dropping -> see haDelta/SMA3 cross. haOscillator will likely stay below zero too.
- EWO is bearish .

I simply like increasing my short EURNOK position on these spikes. I think this trade can be very interesting for the next 5-6 months.
Please read my previous post to see how this setup and trade has been developing.

Comments

Added bit more at 9.32. What is your stop loss?
Reply
Kumowizard mrtwist3r
My stop is always based on trading capital, position size, and volatility measured by ATR. I also have some more complex rules not to run more risk than 5 % drawdown within a month. And normally I never allow more than 1-1,5 % nominal risk / any full position. So while I have to chose a stop loss level based on technicals, I also have to chose it wisely not to be either too toght to suffer whipsaw, or too wide to allow bigger loss/trade than 1-1,5 % of trading capital.
Reply
Sold two small lots on those spikes as you advised, one is already in profit. Thanks!
Reply
Kumowizard mrtwist3r
I tried to sell 1,5 risk unit more yesterday at 1,30+, but was not filled. Now waiting a bit, but looks like I will have to accept a bit lower bid from Mr. Market :-)
Besides metal longs and USD short, NOK is getting to be my favourite trade for the year.
Reply
Kumowizard Kumowizard
Sold more at 9,24
+1 Reply
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