Euro Dollar Short, possible new trend
Still looking for shorts, as the overall trend is still down. Red lines show points in the downtrend. Blue lines are the framework of a possible new uptrend. Mix of Gann, Channels, Andrew's pitchfork, and then observe the distance between as Ratios like Fibonacci, but using reference points from the change point. Not real science, but I always see these things after....
The idea is to find a common trend angle, then copy it to the extreme points of where the old trend ended, and usually lines up in the new trend. If were in the end of this down trend, I theorize the new trend will follow close to the blue lines from different levels. Zoom out and notice how the frame of the trend we're in now lines up with where it changed before, and before, and before that too if you trace back. I only thought it worked lower time frame, but seems to apply to all time frames. Usually 4 lines, though under 10 minutes can be many more.
New trend is assumed, but waiting until it confirms to change bias.
Going short from 1.059 and 1.062, hedge the middle to close at the second entry and the second entry at another level above. Double hedge above the second position and wait for some confirmation of trend change if hedged.
The idea is to find a common trend angle, then copy it to the extreme points of where the old trend ended, and usually lines up in the new trend. If were in the end of this down trend, I theorize the new trend will follow close to the blue lines from different levels. Zoom out and notice how the frame of the trend we're in now lines up with where it changed before, and before, and before that too if you trace back. I only thought it worked lower time frame, but seems to apply to all time frames. Usually 4 lines, though under 10 minutes can be many more.
New trend is assumed, but waiting until it confirms to change bias.
Going short from 1.059 and 1.062, hedge the middle to close at the second entry and the second entry at another level above. Double hedge above the second position and wait for some confirmation of trend change if hedged.
Note
Safer play is to remove the second entry, leave the hedge scalp with a trailing stop of 65 points, and take profit at the second entry, with only a single hedge above. This will avoid the trap of exponential risk exposure, or a complicated system of trying to find breakeven with multiple positions. Each attempt adds around 1% additional risk to the first entry on trying to flatten even, with the same pip value, versus double pip value on each attempt, therefore raising the risk *2 each try, third try *3, and so on..... Blown account with a losing streak very quickly, so keep the pip value down 👇Note
Showing nice reactions off a possible support, may follow the projection line, long counter opportunity from support to the buy zone, entry maybe at 1.0535, hedge 1.05150, hedge gets triggered, then release the buy at the intended short target, same hedge plan for that zone, and if the other hedge gets set, still only in a single balanced position, and target the double top area zone for that buy hedge, release and rehedge limit the top of the range, ride back to break even. Still new to the hedge concept so may have some other pitfalls along the way. If it continues to follow the layout, may have to upgrade to neutralTrade active
Opened a position at 1.0551 (spread accounted) hedge at the stop of 1.05280, and target at 1.0588 for a little over 2r (19.5 pip risk/40.4 pip reward). If price breaks high move stop to breakeven and remove hedgeNote
Update hedge stop to a slightly lower level below the swing low, still in the range around entry and a spread is comingNote
Hedge order back to just below the pin doji at 1.05270
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.