Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019
Tom Hall Market Review #11 - Tuesday, 09 April 2019
Euro / Swiss Franc - P/L +0.31%
The textbook bullish engulfing candle that developed at horizontal structure support after an exhausted run presented a long opportunity.
Trade Activated - Tuesday, 02 April 2019
The high-test reversal candle that developed on Friday wasn't a huge concern as my trailing stop loss was placed below intraday structure support.
Unfortunately, our trailing stop loss was triggered on market open, closing the position prematurely at +0.31%
There was an option to trail our stop loss at breakeven; this option would have returned more profit, however as we approach a potential deadline in Brexit negotiations it's my job to protect exposed capital.
Balancing the negative and positive confluence indicated the risk became a little greater than the potential reward.
Euro / U.S. Dollar
The horizontal structure support at 1.1190 held price action after a low-test reversal candle formed on the 02, April 2019.
The acceleration to start this week has presented a potential short opportunity quicker than expected as price approaches structure resistance.
The structure consists of the descending trendline ( 09, January 2019 ), 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA.
Additional development is still required as price action must show signs of deceleration, indicating the structure is being respected.
Continued acceleration indicates the lack of orders at structure; this increases the potential risk and invalidates a trading opportunity.
Euro / Japanese Yen
This week the EUR.JPY is #1 on the currency pair trade watchlist given the multiple layers of positive confluence.
The confluence consists of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
I'm simply awaiting a reversal candle to confirm rejection of the structure levels.
This Friday's Brexit decision is a cause for concern and has been factored into the negative confluence.
Should price action not develop before Thursday, this trade opportunity will be invalid due to increased risk.
New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The NZD.USD is some way from developing a short opportunity. However, there are early signs of development that I'll continue to monitor throughout this week.
The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI has confirmed early signs of an intraday trend change, for this to be confirmed a break and close above the 4-hour descending trendline resistance at .6770 is required.
If / when price action accelerates I'll monitor development on the approach to .6800 horizontal structure resistance.
To obtain a potential 4:1 reward comparative to risk on this opportunity requires patience, executing prematurely increases the risk of unnecessary drawdown.
Euro / Swiss Franc - P/L +0.31%
The textbook bullish engulfing candle that developed at horizontal structure support after an exhausted run presented a long opportunity.
Trade Activated - Tuesday, 02 April 2019
The high-test reversal candle that developed on Friday wasn't a huge concern as my trailing stop loss was placed below intraday structure support.
Unfortunately, our trailing stop loss was triggered on market open, closing the position prematurely at +0.31%
There was an option to trail our stop loss at breakeven; this option would have returned more profit, however as we approach a potential deadline in Brexit negotiations it's my job to protect exposed capital.
Balancing the negative and positive confluence indicated the risk became a little greater than the potential reward.
Euro / U.S. Dollar
The horizontal structure support at 1.1190 held price action after a low-test reversal candle formed on the 02, April 2019.
The acceleration to start this week has presented a potential short opportunity quicker than expected as price approaches structure resistance.
The structure consists of the descending trendline ( 09, January 2019 ), 38.20% Fibonacci retracement and 50EMA.
Additional development is still required as price action must show signs of deceleration, indicating the structure is being respected.
Continued acceleration indicates the lack of orders at structure; this increases the potential risk and invalidates a trading opportunity.
Euro / Japanese Yen
This week the EUR.JPY is #1 on the currency pair trade watchlist given the multiple layers of positive confluence.
The confluence consists of the 125.70 horizontal structure resistance, ascending trendline ( 15, January 2019 ), descending trendline ( 01, March 2019 ) 50EMA and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement.
I'm simply awaiting a reversal candle to confirm rejection of the structure levels.
This Friday's Brexit decision is a cause for concern and has been factored into the negative confluence.
Should price action not develop before Thursday, this trade opportunity will be invalid due to increased risk.
New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
The NZD.USD is some way from developing a short opportunity. However, there are early signs of development that I'll continue to monitor throughout this week.
The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI has confirmed early signs of an intraday trend change, for this to be confirmed a break and close above the 4-hour descending trendline resistance at .6770 is required.
If / when price action accelerates I'll monitor development on the approach to .6800 horizontal structure resistance.
To obtain a potential 4:1 reward comparative to risk on this opportunity requires patience, executing prematurely increases the risk of unnecessary drawdown.
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