Top Down Analysis for EURUSD - Q4
Updated
The multi time frame analysis is in the updates below the main Idea.
Since we have flipped bullish on the higher time frames, I'll give my big picture view on EU. I look at the timeframes like a gearbox or transmission. The H4 is a gear that, on one revolution will turn the H1 gear four times and the H1, in turn will turn the M15 four times and so on all the way down to the micro time frames. I think that having a grip on all of the relevant time frames is good for forecasting. I believe that once we smesh this H4 supply zone we will have a bullish monthly internal trend, a bullish weekly internal trend, a bullish major daily trend and bullish major H4 trend aswell as the H1 and M15 also being bullish. September and Q4 are looking, well... ching ching!
The last time I did a thorough analysis like this it was flagged by Tradingview, sadly due to my shameless plugging! So I will behave!
Since we have flipped bullish on the higher time frames, I'll give my big picture view on EU. I look at the timeframes like a gearbox or transmission. The H4 is a gear that, on one revolution will turn the H1 gear four times and the H1, in turn will turn the M15 four times and so on all the way down to the micro time frames. I think that having a grip on all of the relevant time frames is good for forecasting. I believe that once we smesh this H4 supply zone we will have a bullish monthly internal trend, a bullish weekly internal trend, a bullish major daily trend and bullish major H4 trend aswell as the H1 and M15 also being bullish. September and Q4 are looking, well... ching ching!
The last time I did a thorough analysis like this it was flagged by Tradingview, sadly due to my shameless plugging! So I will behave!
Note
Looking at the monthly, it's looking to me like we're going up for the IDM or even the monthly extreme. The white dashed lines are my favourable paths but the orange path is a possibility. This is a super high time frame and will take years to play out but having a view from this high up is a good vantage point.Note
I analysed the weekly last month and deemed the demand we were tagging a smart money trap which was right. Click the image to go to the idea.
We have just had a very strong reaction from the Weekly decisional demand zone, which is what has turned everything up to and including the H4 bullish and at this stage (Wednesday 30/08/2023) it is looking like we could close above last week's candle that mitigated the zone. This structure right now is minor, as I am mapping the pullback but a bullish weekly push will lead to lots of intra-day buy opportunities.
Note
Staying with the Weekly for a bit longer, and zooming in we can forecast the path. About as highly subjective and speculative as it gets! Only time will tell but I'll put my idea on record Note
Looking at the daily and we're a long way off a bullish internal CHoCH but I'm happy to use the H4 for structure and it is more than satisfactory. It's like the daily in 4K!Note
The H4 is where it's at for me! It's quite nimble but at the same time it's a heavy hitter. Lots of feedback that can often be trusted. Once we break that level I have annotated then I am happy that we're trading major structure. With all the time frame alignment we can just stick to H1 and M15 demand plays and there should be plenty to eat, all round. The H4 target is of course the same as the daily target.Note
Taking a closer look at the H4 we can see that we have a little more room for upside to break that supply that was abused this afternoon before pulling back and soaking up the liquidity to make a new high. It may be that it has run out of steam due to the two big H4 candles being highly inefficient so it may need to balance those areas before it can break upwards. It's anyones' guess at this stage. A fresh HTF trend as we move into Q4 should offer a lot of low hanging fruit for traders, I have marked the leg where I will next be looking to chew my bits off the market.Note
The M15 is my preferred environmental time frame for intraday. Most of the time it will give me zones that I can frame into a H4 context for high probability setups. This is what I am looking at for the very near future. There is lots of the US Mafia, I mean US Dollar data coming out for the rest of this week so sitting on the sides and leaving your weapons holstered until next week could be a smart move. We could also be stacking more confluence by then.Note
I'm not sure what to do with so many analysis'. Do I leave them buried in the updates of one idea or do I give them all their own idea? Answers in the comments and tag me on Twitter with any trades you take through my plan.
Vagrant market bully.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
No course and no challenge passing, please don't ask. Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.
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