EUR/USD Extends Decline Amid USD Strength and Weak Eurozone Data

Oct 23

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, trading near fresh multi-week lows around the 1.0769 mark during Wednesday’s mid-European session. This decline reflects the ongoing strength of the US Dollar, fueled by a gloomy market sentiment and growing concerns surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure due to lackluster local macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that the Eurozone's economic challenges persist into the final quarter of the year.

Factors Driving the EUR/USD Decline

1. US Dollar Strength
The US Dollar remains dominant, driven by risk aversion as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst increasing political uncertainty in the US. The potential impact of the presidential election has added to market jitters, with investors favoring the Greenback for its perceived stability.
Additionally, strong US economic data has reinforced the USD's bullish sentiment, suggesting that the US economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro and pushes the EUR/USD lower.

2. Weak Eurozone Macro Data
The Euro struggles to gain traction, weighed down by recent disappointing economic figures from the Eurozone. The latest data indicates ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, suggesting that the region's economic recovery may be faltering.
Persistent economic sluggishness in major Eurozone economies, like Germany and France, has dampened confidence in the Euro, as investors remain cautious about the currency's short-term prospects.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Approaches Key Demand Zone

As anticipated in our previous forecast, the EUR/USD has bypassed an intermediate demand zone and is now approaching a more robust support area at the lower level. Here are the key factors at play:

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:

According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bearish on the Euro, while institutional investors (often referred to as “smart money”) have begun to move in the opposite direction, accumulating long positions. This shift in positioning hints at a potential turnaround as the EUR/USD nears significant demand levels.
DXY Overbought Condition:

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is currently in overbought territory. This condition suggests that the USD rally could be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a EUR/USD rebound.
The technical overextension of the DXY aligns with the prospect of a retracement, providing additional support for the Euro at the upcoming demand area.

Buy Limit Setup:

With the EUR/USD nearing a critical demand zone, we are considering placing a buy limit order. This approach aims to capitalize on a potential reversal at the lower demand area, which is supported by both technical indicators and the shifting COT report dynamics.
Trading Strategy: Buy Limit on Demand Area
Given the current conditions, a buy limit order near the next demand area presents a favorable risk-reward setup. Here’s how we’re approaching this potential trade:



Entry: Set a buy limit order just above the upcoming demand zone, targeting a potential rebound in the EUR/USD pair.
Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk in case of a continued slide.
Target: Aim for a near-term bounce back toward resistance levels, aligning with potential DXY weakness and institutional positioning.
Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism for a EUR/USD Rebound
While the EUR/USD remains under pressure due to the prevailing USD strength and weak Eurozone data, technical factors and shifting market positioning suggest a potential short-term reversal. As the pair approaches a critical demand zone, a carefully placed buy limit order could offer a promising entry opportunity.

With political uncertainty in the US and a potentially overbought USD, traders should monitor upcoming data releases and market sentiment closely, as these factors could influence the timing and magnitude of a possible EUR/USD bounce. As always, risk management is crucial, especially in a volatile environment shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.


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