The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.0244, continuing to face strong selling pressure after failing to sustain above the resistance at $1.0300. The chart shows that the downtrend is still in place, with the price below both the 34 and 89 EMAs, and there is a bearish crossover between the two lines – a negative signal.
The downtrend line connecting the lower highs continues to act as a strong dynamic resistance. The $1.0300-1.0330 price zone is a key resistance area, and only a breakout above this area can the uptrend resume. On the contrary, the support zone at $1.0200 is under threat. If the price breaks this level, the next target will be the $1.0150 zone, and even deeper towards $1.0100.
RSI: Currently at 31.28, near oversold territory, suggesting that selling pressure may have temporarily dried up. However, the fact that RSI has not bounced strongly into the 40-50 zone suggests that the upside momentum, if any, will be weak and corrective.
For now, I am leaning towards a break of the $1.0200 support level, due to selling pressure from fundamentals and technicals. However, it is important to watch the price reaction at this support level carefully. If there is a bullish divergence on RSI or a strong reversal candle, this could be an opportunity for short-term buy orders. The focus to watch is the $1.0300 zone – if it fails to break, the downtrend will continue to dominate
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