I see a possible buy climax , since the December low.
Last week bar is a 1B sell signal.
Now, should this week trade below the 1B signal bar, we're likely to see a gud sell, and the selloff might test the near term swing low = March 10 Low of 1.0820(much clearer on Daily chart)
The other side of the coin is this:
We had a similar short signal (3B sell signal ) the prior week which failed to take the market down. I guess the first bar, marubozu(Range Expansion bar), in the 3B signal was extremely larger than the prior bar, and that meant pullbacks would be bought within the 50%-75% buy zone. Bar 4 traded below bar 3= confirmation of the 3B sell signal but it failed.
This week, we're presented w/ a similar scenario. We have this 1B sell signal. However, the bar before it,bar 5 is also an opening marubozu. Now, that means that, should we get a trade below the 1B to trigger a short, chances are that buyers might step in from below = the 50%-75% buy zone.
It is worth noting that, should we trade below the open of bar5(technically the close of bar4), then the selloff is confirmed, and we're more than 50% certain that we test the near term higher low of 1.0820
MARUBOZU =RANGE EXPANSION BAR= "Is the name of a Japanese candlesticks formation used in technical analysis to indicate a stock has traded strongly in one direction throughout the session and closed at its high or low price of the day"
DAILY
Definitions
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
UTL=UpTrendline = A line from the Lowest Low, upward and to the highest minor low point preceding the Highest High so that the line does not pass through prices in between
these two points.
DTL=DownTrendline = A line from the highest high point downward to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low so that the line does not pass through prices in between these two high points.
SX/BX =Sell Climax/Buy Climax
BO=Breakout
BOL=Breakout limit (Determined when price seize to make a new high/low in 5 bars since the last high/low following the initial rally/selloff after TL BO)
LH MTR = Lower High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' gets close to 'BX'
HH MTR=Higher High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' exceeds 'BX'
LLMTR = Lower Low Major Trend Reversal = Leg down following the 'BOL' exceeds 'SX'
HL MTR= Higher Low Major Trend Reversal =Legdown following the 'BOL' only gets close to 'SX'
TR = Trading Range (Tradable legs implied)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The Logic
1. Trend trading until the weight of evidence tells of the absence of the trend.
2. And to trade the potential legs within the trading range, when price finally breaks the trendline, and enters into a tradable trading range, until there's a trading range breakout- continuation or reversal.
Last week bar is a 1B sell signal.
Now, should this week trade below the 1B signal bar, we're likely to see a gud sell, and the selloff might test the near term swing low = March 10 Low of 1.0820(much clearer on Daily chart)
The other side of the coin is this:
We had a similar short signal (3B sell signal ) the prior week which failed to take the market down. I guess the first bar, marubozu(Range Expansion bar), in the 3B signal was extremely larger than the prior bar, and that meant pullbacks would be bought within the 50%-75% buy zone. Bar 4 traded below bar 3= confirmation of the 3B sell signal but it failed.
This week, we're presented w/ a similar scenario. We have this 1B sell signal. However, the bar before it,bar 5 is also an opening marubozu. Now, that means that, should we get a trade below the 1B to trigger a short, chances are that buyers might step in from below = the 50%-75% buy zone.
It is worth noting that, should we trade below the open of bar5(technically the close of bar4), then the selloff is confirmed, and we're more than 50% certain that we test the near term higher low of 1.0820
MARUBOZU =RANGE EXPANSION BAR= "Is the name of a Japanese candlesticks formation used in technical analysis to indicate a stock has traded strongly in one direction throughout the session and closed at its high or low price of the day"
DAILY
Definitions
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
UTL=UpTrendline = A line from the Lowest Low, upward and to the highest minor low point preceding the Highest High so that the line does not pass through prices in between
these two points.
DTL=DownTrendline = A line from the highest high point downward to the lowest minor high point preceding the lowest low so that the line does not pass through prices in between these two high points.
SX/BX =Sell Climax/Buy Climax
BO=Breakout
BOL=Breakout limit (Determined when price seize to make a new high/low in 5 bars since the last high/low following the initial rally/selloff after TL BO)
LH MTR = Lower High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' gets close to 'BX'
HH MTR=Higher High Major Trend Reversal = Leg up following the 'BOL' exceeds 'BX'
LLMTR = Lower Low Major Trend Reversal = Leg down following the 'BOL' exceeds 'SX'
HL MTR= Higher Low Major Trend Reversal =Legdown following the 'BOL' only gets close to 'SX'
TR = Trading Range (Tradable legs implied)
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The Logic
1. Trend trading until the weight of evidence tells of the absence of the trend.
2. And to trade the potential legs within the trading range, when price finally breaks the trendline, and enters into a tradable trading range, until there's a trading range breakout- continuation or reversal.
Comment:
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/3/3ExVyqVl.png
Comment:
Lets see if this works :)
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/u/uncdsWEz.png
s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/u/uncdsWEz.png
Comment:
I would bet on a LL MTR here (*In nmikes chartroom) s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/b/b8fAxAbT.png
Comment:
Daily today: s3.amazonaws.com/tra...shots/d/dXDTvcvK.png
