2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20100 - 20500
bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below.
Invalidation is above 20500.
short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500.
trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20100 - 20500
bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout.
Invalidation is below 20100.
bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below.
Invalidation is above 20500.
short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400.
medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025.
current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500.
trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.