Climate of uncertainty
I think it's really hard to predict what is going to happen with GBP-EUR due to the climate of uncertainty currently in the UK an the EU.
The EU is struggling to re-arrange it's finances after the UK's departure, also this budgeting turmoil alongside populism and nationalism exacerbation in some EU countries, seem have put the EU expansion plans currently at halt. Also in Europe there's been very recently change of leadership, elections, etc ... which adds more complexity to the equation.
In the UK now that Brexit has happened, the populists that run the government observe that there's a budget gap and that the country has a lot of expenses. Negotiations are taking place with other countries and ideas such as super-charged ports are being prepared for 2021. But yet the climate is of a lot of uncertainty, there's being a recently back and forward with the EU an even threats of cancelling negotiations. The government in the UK alongside trade deals, also wants to introduce a new controversial point based immigration system for the skilled vacancies and is also after a guest-worker scheme for the un-skilled vacancies. This transition will cost a lot of money to the UK but also a slow down.
Due to so much uncertainty and looking into the chart, in the short and perhaps mid term we think the GBP-EUR oscillating in a channel between 1.08 and 1.19.
If the GBP-EUR is to spike suddenly we should pay attention and triangulate with the USD or other currency, to try to determine if in fact the GBP is going up or the EUR is going down.
The EU weakness is the more likely reason for the GBP to break the channel upwards(if happens, but unlikely) in the short mid term.
The EU is struggling to re-arrange it's finances after the UK's departure, also this budgeting turmoil alongside populism and nationalism exacerbation in some EU countries, seem have put the EU expansion plans currently at halt. Also in Europe there's been very recently change of leadership, elections, etc ... which adds more complexity to the equation.
In the UK now that Brexit has happened, the populists that run the government observe that there's a budget gap and that the country has a lot of expenses. Negotiations are taking place with other countries and ideas such as super-charged ports are being prepared for 2021. But yet the climate is of a lot of uncertainty, there's being a recently back and forward with the EU an even threats of cancelling negotiations. The government in the UK alongside trade deals, also wants to introduce a new controversial point based immigration system for the skilled vacancies and is also after a guest-worker scheme for the un-skilled vacancies. This transition will cost a lot of money to the UK but also a slow down.
Due to so much uncertainty and looking into the chart, in the short and perhaps mid term we think the GBP-EUR oscillating in a channel between 1.08 and 1.19.
If the GBP-EUR is to spike suddenly we should pay attention and triangulate with the USD or other currency, to try to determine if in fact the GBP is going up or the EUR is going down.
The EU weakness is the more likely reason for the GBP to break the channel upwards(if happens, but unlikely) in the short mid term.
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