GBPUSD_H4
Analysis of GBP/USD Currency Pair Status
The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward trend after two days of gains, falling by approximately 0.3% and dropping below the 1.2500 level. Traders' attempts to sustain the bullish trend were thwarted by weak data and risk-averse sentiment. The economic data weakness in the UK, along with lower expectations for expansionary policies from the Bank of England, coupled with stronger-than-expected data from the United States, has put pressure on the pair.
Weak Annual Performance of the British Pound:
- Quarterly Downtrend: The pound ended 2024 with a quarterly decline and remains near its lowest levels in the past 9 months as the new year begins.
- Retail Data: The UK Like-For-Like retail sales index for December showed a 3.1% increase. However, this data failed to boost the demand for the pound.
Impact of U.S. Data:
- PMI and Business Costs: The release of U.S. PMI data showed that economic activity in the country remains strong, reducing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2025.
- Expectations for Employment: ADP Employment Change data, due to be released on Wednesday, could provide forecasts for the important NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) report.
Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour time frame, we can observe that the bearish trendline, which has been in place for a month, was broken during this week's trading. This trendline, drawn using a linear chart, has sent a signal of a potential trend reversal upon its break.
Given the continued decrease in buying momentum on the 4-hour time frame, the overall trend still appears to be leaning towards a decline on lower time frames. However, it is important to closely monitor the price action around the key zone of 1.22579 - 1.23049. If reversal patterns are observed in this area, there is a possibility of support and a subsequent rebound.
Risk Disclosure Statement:
Since financial markets are influenced by various factors that are constantly changing, the analyses provided are solely for informational purposes regarding the general market situation and do not constitute any recommendation for buying or selling
The GBP/USD currency pair resumed its downward trend after two days of gains, falling by approximately 0.3% and dropping below the 1.2500 level. Traders' attempts to sustain the bullish trend were thwarted by weak data and risk-averse sentiment. The economic data weakness in the UK, along with lower expectations for expansionary policies from the Bank of England, coupled with stronger-than-expected data from the United States, has put pressure on the pair.
Weak Annual Performance of the British Pound:
- Quarterly Downtrend: The pound ended 2024 with a quarterly decline and remains near its lowest levels in the past 9 months as the new year begins.
- Retail Data: The UK Like-For-Like retail sales index for December showed a 3.1% increase. However, this data failed to boost the demand for the pound.
Impact of U.S. Data:
- PMI and Business Costs: The release of U.S. PMI data showed that economic activity in the country remains strong, reducing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2025.
- Expectations for Employment: ADP Employment Change data, due to be released on Wednesday, could provide forecasts for the important NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) report.
Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour time frame, we can observe that the bearish trendline, which has been in place for a month, was broken during this week's trading. This trendline, drawn using a linear chart, has sent a signal of a potential trend reversal upon its break.
Given the continued decrease in buying momentum on the 4-hour time frame, the overall trend still appears to be leaning towards a decline on lower time frames. However, it is important to closely monitor the price action around the key zone of 1.22579 - 1.23049. If reversal patterns are observed in this area, there is a possibility of support and a subsequent rebound.
Risk Disclosure Statement:
Since financial markets are influenced by various factors that are constantly changing, the analyses provided are solely for informational purposes regarding the general market situation and do not constitute any recommendation for buying or selling
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