Weekly Technical Analysis for Major Currency Pairs, Commodities,

Oct 6

Weekly Analysis of Gold, Currencies, and Oil Opportunities from October 7 to October 11, 2024


Introduction:
Greetings, this is Mohamed Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert,
In this important weekly analysis, we present a comprehensive technical and economic analysis of the major currency pairs, commodities, and indices for the period from October 7th to October 11th, 2024. We will highlight major investment opportunities awaiting you in the global markets, including the US dollar, gold, oil, and indices. This article not only provides a broad overview of the markets but also reveals golden opportunities that should be seized in light of the significant news releases expected this week. We invite you to share your comments and thoughts.

At the end of the previous week, we witnessed an acceleration of geopolitical events and a return of uncertainty, which impacted gold’s movement and the markets in general. We will provide a comprehensive look at the technical and economic analysis of the markets during this period.

Last Week’s Summary:

Last week, we saw significant developments in the US economy, most notably the “US Data Storm” report, which showed that inflation remains pervasive in the US economy, indicating that the fight against inflation is not yet over. Additionally, we witnessed a marked acceleration in geopolitical events, which have entered a new and decisive phase. In this episode, we will review the impact of these factors on gold prices, the US dollar, and the most important currency pairs, commodities, and financial indices.

Economic and Geopolitical Analysis:

We have selected the period from October 7th to October 11th for this week’s analysis. During this week, important data will be released. We begin on Wednesday with the interest rate decision on the New Zealand dollar, the US crude oil inventory report, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes.

On Thursday, we have crucial data on the US dollar, including the main inflation indicator - the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as well as the core CPI, in addition to weekly unemployment claims. On Friday, we have the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the British pound, the German CPI for the euro, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the US dollar.

Technical Analysis:

Currency Pairs:

• US Dollar (Dollar Index): The dollar continues to rise following a strong jobs report. If it remains above the 102 level, it could target 103 and 104.5. Breaking this level could lead to further gains for the dollar.
• EUR/USD: If prices remain below 1.093, the downtrend could continue towards 1.075 and 1.065. This bearish scenario will only be nullified by a return of buying positions at 1.105.
• GBP/USD: Breaking the 1.3015 level could open the way for further declines to 1.291 and 1.285, and only a return above 1.3200 would halt this decline.
• USD/JPY: If prices exceed 148 yen, we could see gains towards 152 and 158. This scenario will only be canceled if prices drop below 148 yen.
• USD/CHF: The pair is trying to break free from selling pressures, and if prices break through 0.8600, we may see a rise towards 0.8700 and 0.8900 in the upcoming sessions.
• AUD/USD: Trading remains under pressure, and breaking the 0.8600 level could lead to further declines towards 0.6650 and 0.6500.
• NZD/USD: Staying below 0.6085 could lead to a drop towards 0.6100 and 0.6000.
• USD/CAD: If the pair holds above 1.3050, we could see a wave of gains targeting 1.6000 and 1.3800.
• GBP/JPY: If prices successfully break through 196 yen, we may see a rise to levels of 202 and 208 yen against the pound.
• EUR/JPY: Staying above 162 yen could regain positive momentum, targeting 166 and 170 in the upcoming sessions.
• EUR/GBP: Remaining below 0.8080 could lead to a series of losses, targeting 0.8300 and 0.8200.
• USD/TRY: If prices remain above 34 lira, the pair may rise towards 34.50 and 35.00 lira against the US dollar.

Cryptocurrencies:

• BTC/USD: Bitcoin stabilizing above the psychological threshold of $60,000 could push it to break the $65,000 level. If this level is breached, we could see a gradual rise towards $72,000 and $80,000.
• ETH/USD: If prices remain above $2,300, Ethereum could erase previous losses and attempt to test the $2,700 level. Breaking this level could target $3,000 and $3,300.
• XRP/USD: Staying below 55 cents could erase Ripple’s gains and lead to a decline towards 40 cents.

Commodities:

• Gold: The main support level is at $2,640 per ounce. Breaking this level could push prices down to $2,600 and $2,560, but we do not mean a collapse in prices, rather that corrections may be necessary before resuming the upward trend.
• Silver: If prices successfully break through $32.50, silver could target levels of $34 and $36.
• Crude Oil: If prices successfully break through $74 per barrel, we may see a rise towards $82 and $90 per barrel. However, falling below $74 could weaken the positive momentum.
• Natural Gas: Remaining below $3 could push natural gas towards $2.50. If this level is broken, it could target $2 and $1.40.

Global Indices:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: If the index successfully breaks through the 42,250-point level, it may see a rise towards 44,000 points in the medium term.
• S&P 500: Staying above 5,700 points could target 5,850 and 6,000 points.
• Nasdaq: If prices remain above 19,400 points, the index could target 20,400 and 21,800 points.
• Russell 2000: If the index breaks through the 2,225-point level, it may target 2,300 and 2,400 points during the weekly sessions.
• FTSE: Remaining above 8,400 points could target 8,600 and 8,800 points.
• DAX: If the index breaks through the 19,200-point level, it could target 19,700 and 20,200 points.
• CAC: If prices successfully break through 7,600 points, the index could target 8,000 and 8,400 points.
• Nikkei: If the index remains stable above 39,000 points, it could target 41,000 and 43,000 points over the weekly period.

In Conclusion:

The markets remain under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and important economic data. We advise traders to closely monitor support and resistance levels, particularly in gold, oil, and the major currencies. Opportunities remain available if corrective downturns provide good entry points.

Thank you for following this analysis. We encourage you to engage with us by sharing your questions.
This analysis was prepared by Mohammad Qais Abdulghani, financial markets expert, based on current data and market trends. Please note that all strategies and analyses are subject to market changes, and it is advised to stay updated with the latest economic news when making informed decisions.

Best regards, and stay safe.