rahul.u.bhagwat

JSWSTEEL : BREAKOUT or BREAKDOWN ... ?

NSE:JSWSTEEL   JSW STEEL LTD
57 0 4
JSWSTEEL             has formed a Ascending Triangle on the Daily Chart .
If if Breaks above 206/207 we can see upsides of upto 225
However if it Breaks below 188 we may see a strong Down move upto 175.
The question is which way is the right way...?

Some Data points to consider are :
1. JSWSTEEL             is in a uptrend but currently in sideways trend. So main trend is UP.
2. The metals index has been weak, hence the uptrend is not so strong.
3. It is observed that usually the Ascending Triangle Breaks in the side of the trend, that is up.

Some Contra Data Points are :
1. During the formation of this pattern traders went long on 12-May-2017 (Highlighted on chart)thereby increasing the OI to 4,95,000 a 114% increase from previous day (11-May).
2. On 18-May-2017, the Stock went from its High of 209 to Its Low of 188. Open Intrest increased to 42,03,000.
3. From 18-May-2017 to 26-May-2017, OI increased to a stagerring 6,01,17,000.
4. Today OI stands at 6,12,03,000.

Now what i understand is, on 12-May traders went long.
On 18-May they covered & created shorts & have maintained their shorts.


Two scenario's emerge :
1. If the Bulls are able to get past 200, there will be a short-covering & a classical breakout upto 225.
2. The Shorts (if they are institutional players) will push on every rise till it breaks the support & traders will take it to 175, where they will book profits.

Time is yet another matter to consider in this chart. So what is in the offing for us..?

Honestly, i have no clue other than to wait for the markets to show me...

However, i expect valuable inputs, scenarios, constructive criticism from all you people.
Comment: A new view also suggests that Institutional Player's are shorting it in Futures (at a discount) & buying it in Cash. Since the dividend declared is Rs.2.45 & the record book closure date is 14th to 16th June. They will keep a small (transaction cost + Profit) & heavily sell after 17th June...
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