LTC Bear Experiment

Jul 7, 2019

Most of my calls are dead wrong, but this one feels different. Three point confirmation of downtrend RSI resistance. Unspectacular volume for 7x rise. Virtually no retest of downtrend price resistance. Virtually no consolidation during 2017 super-bubble. 1W MACD is starting to bend over. MACD of RSI has already crossed down. MACD of OBV is bending over. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see a blow off up to $200, which would change the dynamics of this analysis, but fundamentally I don't think we will see a new ATH for a long time. Most logical conclusion is that we go down from here, and my preferred long-term target buy price is right around $5.

Jul 11, 2019

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It's time to choose... up or down?

I say short term up, long term down. Let me know what you think!

Jul 11, 2019

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Slipped down! Luckily, this is why I let algorithms choose buy points for me.

If you look both of my previous charts, I have a cyan horizontal at 96.03 and several others at lower prices. These are special types of pivot points that I call anchors. My general trading strategy is to put limit buys on these anchors, trust the algorithm, cross my fingers, and hope for a bounce.



Knife catching is dangerous, and it doesn't always work so precisely, so I don't recommend putting orders on these points as trading advice. When they do work, it's shockingly accurate. Now comes the hard part, when to get out? Set a stop loss? Set a limit sell order? Just market sell now on this resistance? In the past, greed has taken over and I've often watched an 8% overnight gain turn into dust, or watch an 80% weekly gain reverse back down. According to my statistical analysis tools across the entire cryptocurrency market, if a particular category of anchor point is touched (as is this one), there is a 99.9% chance of making at least 3.8% gain within 24 hours, and lesser but known probabilities of making X% gain within Y hours. I consider this 3.8% gain to be my benchmark for making decisions... but in this case I'll set a stop loss, let greed take over, and shoot for at least the median gain over a 24 hour period. Markedly beating S&P yearly average returns in a single day is good enough for me.

Jul 14, 2019

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If you go back up to the top chart, I have another horizontal line at $90.04. Limit buy order just hit. Target sell order is $97. Again, I'm more than happy to take a year of average stock market gains in a day, especially during a bear trend. Let's see what happens.

I do anticipate the potential for a brief drop down to ~$89 before moving up, but I'm not 100% sure and don't want to play the edges too hard. Stop below $88.

Sep 4, 2019

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First major target reached. A bounce was expected here, and LTC is starting to rise in the short term. So far, this is the most accurate prediction I've ever made. The alignment in both price and time is almost perfect.

Dec 29, 2019

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If you look at my original chart, there is a horizontal blue line at exactly $36.25. Aside from this price being a predictable local bottom, we have a lot of bullish momentum and breakouts above resistance throughout the crypto market. Decreasing volume with decreasing price. Bears are getting lazy. For now, I'm scoping out logical sell points and possible market moves. I found one that caught my eye. If the market surges in the short term due to FOMO and LTC touches downtrending resistance shown below, LTC will get smacked down hard. This is not necessarily a prediction of price movement, but more of an if-then scenario. If this FOMO surge happens and moves the price to $53 before the end of the first week in January, the confluence of resistance here will likely be insurmountable in the short term.

Jan 11, 2020

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Approaching the bearish zone that I mentioned in the previous comment on Dec 29. Still has a bit more room to grow.

Jan 14, 2020

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There it is. High statistical probability of trend reversal, right in this zone.