#202426 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

gold futures
Quote from last week:

comment: Market stayed above 2300 and it’s time to reevaluate my take on this. The bear trend could very well be a two-legged move inside a trading range 2300-2477. So going forward I have clear invalidation points for both drawn outcomes. If bears keep it below the daily 20ema which is 20 points above Friday’s close, this bear trend can continue and my target would be 2270ish. If bulls get above last week’s high 2358, this is much more likely a trading range and 2300 stays support for now. Bears are clearly getting weaker. I wait for market to show strong momentum in either direction but still favoring the bears to reverse here.

comment: Bears let it get back to 2382 before they violently sold on Friday for 53 points down. I was so annoyed by the move up to 2380, that I somehow ignored the fucking alert which broke below 2368 and I did miss the whole move. Very bad trading on my end. The last month looks pretty fractalicious to me. Yes that word exists. Now. Move on. Bears need strong follow through to test 2300 again. Right now the small bull trend line is support until clearly broken. If bears fail 2300/2330 again, they will probably give up and retest the highs again, which would confirm the current triangle.

current market cycle: trading range until 2300 is broken.

key levels: 2300 - 2400 / below 2300 comes 2270 in play

bull case: Bulls see the green support line and want to keep it support and keep the market above 2300/2320. They stalled the market long enough that not enough bears want to push their luck, selling the lows here. They also managed to print 2 bars above the daily ema, which makes the market more neutral.

Invalidation is below 2300.

bear case: Bears see another lower high and a strong sell signal on Friday. They want to break below the support at 2300/2320 and finally break it with some force for a W5 down to my first measured move target and around the breakout price 2270. If bears can not break below 2320 on Monday, we will probably see more sideways movement.

Invalidation is above 2380.

outlook last week:

“Bearish. Big bear surprise on Friday and I expect follow through. ”

→ Last Sunday we traded 2349 and now we are at 2331. Was neutral and market made -18 points on the week. Decent outlook but prices were a bit off.

short term: Play the triangle if the support holds.

medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged

current swing trade: None and won’t enter. Just scalps for me.

Chart update: Added small support line for bears to break.