Are pot stocks actually making money?

Jan 18, 2022

One of the "themes" I have been watching for 2022 is the possible resurgence of pot stocks. Every year has its theme and "anything can happen."

Over the weekend I watched a short Vice documentary following the current state of legal (and illegal) weed in California. You can watch here:
youtube.com/watch?v=QbhzM6vrNho

We can chalk this up to "unintended consequences" where the new decriminalized regime lowers penalties for growing black market marijuana while the oppressive tax structure is prohibitive to legal marijuana business. I cannot say if this is a "because California" problem or if this the model that will play out state-by-state. Pot stocks, led by Tilray TLRY, had a rally in 2021 following the election of Biden and Democratic Congress in the USA. Investors assumed this was bullish for the regulated weed industry but examples of what is playing out in California right now show the potential extraneous factors to running a legal marijuana business in the United States. The wheels of politics turn slowly and it could be a very long time before politicians and business owners get it right.

If we look at the largest company by revenue in the United States, Green Thumb Industries GTBIF, for the last 5 earnings they have made money but the Weekly chart is dangerously close to a full bearish trend. I'll continue watching these stocks and this sector but I'm not a buyer yet.