AbhishekHSinghCMT
Short

M&M Finance- Can’t stand the Heat-Come out of Fin Kitchen@330

NSE:M_MFIN   MAHINDRA &MAH FIN
754 15 19
Someone has rightly said that if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen- which I also truly believe & hope you too.

320-330 is projected channel top -go deep -read the post you will get it!

M & M Finance
Mahindra & Mahindra Finance, the rural India focused lender, surged about 8 percent to a 52-week high – did I say surged- sorry, that was the news on 26th April2016 printed in leading newspapers ended at 297.50 amid above normal rainfall, drop in bad loans & better farm economy could get a lift as few reasons to contribute for the stock to perform well on the exchange.

So, what happened suddenly in Oct2016 why the fin stock erased all the gain which it gained in April last year.
Well fundamentals could be the reason again, but I am still searching for a reason since I entered markets in 2006 & how it can help us to know about the ensuing danger which the stock is going to pass in coming days.

Well, I got the answer to certain extent from 2nd leg of the stool- which is technical analysis & 3legs of the stool are fundamental-technical & Sentiment analysis which is sufficient to hold the stool.

Stool Funda
It’s kind of like standing on a three-legged stool – if one of the legs is weak, the stool will break under your weight and you’ll fall flat on your face. The same holds true in trading. If your analysis on any of the three types of trading is weak and you ignore it, there’s a good chance that it will cause you to lose out on your trade!

Which type of analysis is best for trading- Ahhh, A million dollar question- well there is no end for this so let me jump into the analysis as a technical analyst.

Elliottician’s View
It travelled in impulsive manner from lows@34 in Oct2008 to 356.50 in Dec2013 in fives pink waves completing the blue intermediate wave-1 shown on right hand side with line diagram. It is all fractals which forms even bigger waves. 5 waves to progress & 3 waves to regress is the basis for wave theory & Mahindra finance is a classic example showing the same.

Pink waves- 1-2-3-4-5 chosen as minor waves.

Post 356.50 – it retraced to 173 completing wave-A & rushed upside from 173 to surprise markets -extending its rally to 405 finishing wave-B before collapse in Oct2016.

The fall from 405 has caught bulls on the wrong foot & heading into wave-C which started from 405 to 244 –likely retracing the fall before it slips again.

Channel Trading
Use the parallel channel as the stock is moving exactly in the cage from 244 lows & currently trading@311.65 likely can touch 325-330 & kiss the channel top before it collapse.
Note- please do not predict markets once it touch the channel top –whether it breaks or falls from the channel top- let market do its job- as it is better than an analyst so trade without confirmation- my old funda. “Never trade without confirmation”

Log Scale
Chosing a log scale as stock has risen more than 10 times from it’s bottom.

Daily Chart


Trading Strategy

Scenario -1 Selling on channel top between 325-330 once you get confirmation that channel top is holding the fin stock

Scenario- 2 Selling below mini- bottom@263

Target projections we shall comeback once we see above scenarios unfolding.

Once this regress is done – this stock could be an explosive stock in the years ahead.

Hope, you got to learn new things in the above post & thanks to the user who asked me in Indian chat room for this analysis on Friday-17th March2017.


India Chat Room where you will find passionate traders from our India region- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ


Have a nice weekend.

Regards,
Abhishek             H.Singh, CMT            



Trade active: 11:43 Hrs 20th March2017

Last Price@316.50

Pushing in the desired direction & has 1 step forward from day low@310 -made day high@317-318.
Trade active: 18:38 Hrs 28th March 2017

Day High@338

Making a new high & getting resistance - I will keep a close watch on the stock for an upcoming opportunity next.

I am searching for selling trade, but will not hurry up to take positions.

Trade active: 09:17 Hrs 30th March2017

Last Price@318.50

It is looking choppy downside move from 338 recent high & has potential to bounce sharply upside so one has to be careful.

Downside looks limited to 310-312 -only sustaining below 310 we will come back to see for the next downside move.
Trade active: 09:30 Hrs 30th March2017

Last Price@320.75

Against 314 looks for a bounce, which if travels above 333 can take to new highs beyond 338.

Trade active: 09:15 Hrs 31st March2017

Last Price@316

We are not selling yet & shall be watching the structure. Intraday traders can look to buy for a bounce to 322-325 & above 325 for 335.
Trade active: 09:48 Hrs 31st March2017

Last Price@314

On the bounce between 316-317 - we will exit intraday buy which is at cost price & any buy will be checked again only above 325 or we look for selling at top.
Trade active: 12:45 Hrs 31st March2017

Last price@316.40

We are out in intraday buy call at cost price- no loss- no profit as it is looking choppy at the moment. Any push above 320 will give hint for upside move in intraday again.
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
http://in.tradingview.com
| LinkedIn
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
stop loss for 316 intraday trade sir?
Reply
@santhoshk, It is below 308.
Reply
Your M&M Finance call is turning out to be prophetic. You think this is now headed towards 300 in April series - which is the lower point of the channel? I have shorted it at 322. Thanks!
Reply
@richdreamz, I will check & keep updating the post as price moves on. Sometimes I forget due to work pressure so guys have to poke me on my update.
Reply
richdreamz AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, when you have sometime, please can you provide an update on this? It looks like it is unable to hold 340. thank you.
Reply
Thanks Abhishek.
Reply
Sir Great analysis , you have lot a patience to explain everything in detailed great work sir, i have similar view in this stock, please correct me if i am wrong, i am trying to learn EW based on your posts

Reply
AbhishekHSinghCMT ymaheshreddy4u
@ymaheshreddy4u, There is a small channel & M - Fin is trading between that channel- let it break either side & we will know which way next. Likely a downside break has higher possibility but still we shall not guess & wait for market to show us the way.
Reply
I have heard of Society as a 3 legged stool where Politician ,Police and criminals are 3 legs of a stool and each one need the support of other two . But in Stock analysis this is a fantastic idea. I have recently joined this site and have read 2-3 posts ( Infy,BPCL and this one of M&M finance ) You have definitely deep insights and I would like to read and follow you . Though an Old man but in the share trading a totally novice . But it is never late to learn any thing in life. Thanks for your posts.
Reply
@guide733, Welcome Sir! to this passionate community. Regards, Abhishek
Reply
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