The bears are awake

By wsbza

Updated

Close below 1.21545 would at least eliminate the alternative triangle correction

Note

We may label the internal structure differently but it will not alter the overall structure

Note

Bearish count

We could expect a 5 waves sequence to complete larger degree wave 1 or A
Green wave (i) ended at 1.2216, close above this level would argue a different wave count

short-term target 1: 1.1992 if green wave (iii) equals to 1.618 times the length of wave (i)
short-term target 2: 1.1827 if blue wave {iii} equals to 1.618 times the length of wave {i}
short-term target 3: end of wave 4 at 1.1554

Note

2.618 Fib extension at 1.17312

Note

the dollar index says Euro may decline further

Note

short-term bear still alive

Note

alter count: ending diagonal to complete green wave (v)
red wave 1 circle = blue iii of green (v)
red wave 2 circle = blue iv of green (v)
but we need a swift rally breaking the end of red wave 2 circle first
there is no price evidence to confirm the above count so far

Note

expecting blue wave iv circle correction will end within 38.2% - 50% retracement level

Note

blue wave iv circle is still under way

Note

grey triangle wave {iv} or blue wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) for {v}

Note

the triangle could be the best interpretation so far

Note

break above wave (c) high of 1.17908 would invalid the triangle count

Note

short-term sell set up

Note

ready for sell again?

Note

it seems wave (e) of {iv} is still unfolding

Note

wave (e) could be a double zigzag w-x-y or a-b-c-d-e triangle

Note

time to secure some profits

Note

possible count 1

Note

possible count 2

Note

another new low is still possible, no need to rush into catch the bottom

Note

EURO has broken the red wave (i) low today. it tells us this is not wave (iv) correction, which also suggests the above bullish case is under way.
We can still argue the red (i) to (v) could be only wave (i) of {v} of 1 or A, but i think it's less likely to happen.
A solid close above the end of wave {iv} at 1.1747 would confirm the 5-waves decline sequence since February has ended

Note

expanded flat ?

Note

almost there?

Note

a lower degree bullish flag would signal a good buy opportunity

Note

It seems we can label the sub wave v of (c) as an ending diagonal

Note

bullish target towards 1.18647 where wave {c} travels the same distance as wave {a}

Note

break below green wave {b} low at 1.14322 would activate alternative count in grey

Note

let's review the larger structure

Note

any close below the blue wave {b} low would argue wave 2 or B finished at 1.18153 (Sept high)

Note

the short-term key support level is the end of blue wave {b} at 1.13021, break below this would eliminate the wave and green count.

Note

time to adopt more bearish count

Note

bearish count

Note

The short-term pattern does not look bearish, maybe a complex {ii} or even wave 2 (or B) is still unfolding

Note

It is possible to count wave {ii} has finished at 1.14968 (2nd Jan), where sub wave (c) is an ending diagonal. But the correction could be more complex.

Note

idealised selling opportunity

Note

bearish assumption

Note

if wave B is a triangle, then wave C could be an ending diagonal

Note

short-term count if an ending diagonal for wave C in the making

Note

other possible structure

Note

possible short-term count

Note

wave C done

wsbza

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

Email：info@ewc.space

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.