Updated
NATURAL GAS-Pt.1- Correction about to complete?
Hello traders,
here is our view about natural gas.
As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle.
After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart.
Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal.
If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete
the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477.
In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas.
We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long.
When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price?
This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator.
We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
here is our view about natural gas.
As we can see from the monthly time frame, natgas completed an impulse after breaking a big descending triangle.
After reaching a top of 9.995, natgas created a head and shoulders pattern that coincided with a 535 structure to the downside, as showed in the main chart.
Then, wave 3 of C seems to be completed with an ending diagonal.
If the bullish macro count is in now we should go for another impulse up. Alternatively, we may get a (C) wave to complete
the monthly retracement higher than 10. In the latter case to move to 9.995 would only be a (A) cycle correction of the descent from 2005 high of 16.477.
In both cases, we expect a big buying opportunity coming soon in natural gas.
We are not taking long positions now for wave iv of C since sentiment in retail brokers is over 90% long.
When ALL the retailers are buying, who is selling to them? Who is gonna buy to actually put upward pressure on price?
This is why extreme sentiment is a contrary indicator.
We will update as soon as we see a long setup.
Trade active
sentiment decreasing. good chunk of retailers shake out Ending diagonal for wave iii of C seems completed.long order triggered 2.95@ stop loss already on entry
Note
kickd out breakeven. restriked 2.94 on 1H double bottom. sl already on entry. Better safe than sorry on the tricky devil natgasNote
kicked at entry. Just observingTrade active
waiting for the weekly pov at 2.76
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order triggered 2.76 at the weekly POC. stop loss on entryNote
again closed at entry. patience will be needed on this. Staying out until retailer sentiment decreases more significantlyTrade active
Trade closed manually
closed 2.88 for a profit 1.5% of equity. Not willing to risk over the weekend. No need to fomo.Note
Our decision to close prior the weekend payed out. Natural first targets for this wave 3 of C is 1.618 of 1 and the algo tp at the -0.236 of the whole move. Red zone on chart. Not saying we will buy there
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red zone wicked. Long @2.471
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stop loss on entry
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