Natural Gas Prices Poised for New 2024 Highs
After a poor start to the year, Natural Gas prices have surged in the current quarter, largely due to stronger fundamentals. Extending the advance this week, the commodity looks poised to set new 2024 highs (3.397), but it may be early to talk about further gains.
Key drillers have lowered their 2024 output guidance, while demand is expected to accelerate substantially, largely due to Asian industrial use. Adding to the optimistic outlook, the World Bank this week raised its growth forecast for the US and China and India, while the Europe exited its brief recession and the ECB slashed interest rates this month.
On the other hand, supply is expected to expand this year and producers could boost their activity as price rise. European countries have agreed to keep consumption low, while historically warm weather poses another threat to demand optimism. Natural gas is also used for electricity generation though, which can be a tailwind in the summer months.
On the technical front, the RSI has not followed prices higher, in a divergence that can limit the upside and fuel a pullback towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the bullish bias, but that would need strong catalyst.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
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Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Key drillers have lowered their 2024 output guidance, while demand is expected to accelerate substantially, largely due to Asian industrial use. Adding to the optimistic outlook, the World Bank this week raised its growth forecast for the US and China and India, while the Europe exited its brief recession and the ECB slashed interest rates this month.
On the other hand, supply is expected to expand this year and producers could boost their activity as price rise. European countries have agreed to keep consumption low, while historically warm weather poses another threat to demand optimism. Natural gas is also used for electricity generation though, which can be a tailwind in the summer months.
On the technical front, the RSI has not followed prices higher, in a divergence that can limit the upside and fuel a pullback towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the bullish bias, but that would need strong catalyst.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: fxcm.com/uk/market-commentary/
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: fxcm.com/eu/market-commentary/
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: fxcm.com/au/market-commentary/
Stratos Global LLC clients please see: fxcm.com/markets/market-commentary/
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
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