NIFTY RANGE AT MAKE OR BREAK LEVEL
Market Context and Current Position:
The market appears to be completing the Elliott Wave (5), indicating a potential cycle conclusion.
The recent price action shows bearish divergence in the RSI indicator, which signals momentum loss and a higher likelihood of a reversal or correction phase.
The current level aligns closely with a Fibonacci retracement zone (38.2%), a historically significant support level.
Potential Scenarios:
Reversal Scenario:
If the market respects the Fibonacci 38.2% level, a rebound can be expected.
The Elliott corrective wave (likely ABC) could transition into a new bullish impulsive wave structure, contingent upon strong buying pressure.
Continuation of Correction:
A failure to hold at the 38.2% retracement level could lead to a deeper correction toward the 50% retracement level, coinciding with a critical long-term trendline from the March 2020 low.
This would represent a structural retest of the broader bullish trend initiated post-COVID crash.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels:
The immediate resistance lies around the peak of the recent wave (near the 23,500–24,000 zone).
Any upward breakout should be monitored for a potential extension of the wave 5 structure.
Support Levels:
The 38.2% retracement level (approximately 23,000) and the trendline support.
The 50% retracement level (~21,500) as the next crucial fallback if the 38.2% level is breached.
The market appears to be completing the Elliott Wave (5), indicating a potential cycle conclusion.
The recent price action shows bearish divergence in the RSI indicator, which signals momentum loss and a higher likelihood of a reversal or correction phase.
The current level aligns closely with a Fibonacci retracement zone (38.2%), a historically significant support level.
Potential Scenarios:
Reversal Scenario:
If the market respects the Fibonacci 38.2% level, a rebound can be expected.
The Elliott corrective wave (likely ABC) could transition into a new bullish impulsive wave structure, contingent upon strong buying pressure.
Continuation of Correction:
A failure to hold at the 38.2% retracement level could lead to a deeper correction toward the 50% retracement level, coinciding with a critical long-term trendline from the March 2020 low.
This would represent a structural retest of the broader bullish trend initiated post-COVID crash.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Levels:
The immediate resistance lies around the peak of the recent wave (near the 23,500–24,000 zone).
Any upward breakout should be monitored for a potential extension of the wave 5 structure.
Support Levels:
The 38.2% retracement level (approximately 23,000) and the trendline support.
The 50% retracement level (~21,500) as the next crucial fallback if the 38.2% level is breached.
Disclaimer
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