[Diary] NIFTY Price Action Overview

Aug 22, 2022

Wrote on 19 Aug 2022.

I had stopped being active in Tradingview as the adrenalin to be on the Top in the People page is no more. [Previously, there was a leaderboard in TView where chartists usually used to compete to be on the top on various metrics] And, it is bad actually. My good habit is gone.

Anyways, In an old discussion from 10th July, 22, I plotted the following chart -

Before we dive into the word "Retest". Let's talk about what is not a retest.

I usually draw arrows on my expectations. Like in the case of Indigo, I have outlined, I am expecting it to shoot up directly. But, in the Nifty chart, I have made a down arrow first which is bounced from the channel.

Right?

These expectations are based on micro observations. Like in the case of Indigo,

• [There was support for higher TF.]
  [Crude price was falling.]
  [It's a pin bar. So, the SL was low.]
  [There was unusual OI near 2000.]
  

Kind of stuff like that. You can see my Crude Oil view with the above reference.

Here is Nifty afterward.

It broke the high of the Inside bar and went up straight upside. PS - I did not fathom it will happen. When things like this happen, I just assume that I went lucky.

Like if you think the Nifty trade is almost finished and having FOMO, check this trade -

It fell as expected but did not go up afterward.

While You can argue that Nifty did not fall as I expected either. Anyways, so what is the current observation on Nifty

The rise is quite steep, so there has to be a mean reversion. The buy mode is continued unless the weekly low is broken!


As we are not astrologers who can tell it will go to 18123 at x day and at y time.

Simple way is to just buy it with a SAR (Stop and Reverse) on the dotted line.

And I have another interesting observation here ->

Usually, a 20% rise is normal and it happened before! The last rise lasted even 3 more weeks.

So, people shorting Nifty on the theory of prayer strategy may be upgraded into higher-level priests as they may have to pray for three more weeks like last time. In short, buy with weekly SAR. But I like to write down how my thought process is laid.

Aug 22, 2022

Note

SAR triggered Sell. And it looks fantastic positional Sell.

Aug 22, 2022

Note

Today there was an intraday buy trigger if you follow normal price action.

Both in BN and N.

BankNIFTY -


NIFTY -


There was no momentum because despite it triggered it did not rise back with the same audacity it fell!

So, instead of doing intraday long, I did PE options short with a small stop loss. [It encapsulates the consolidation, right?]



It went to minor profit and then TSLed to cost which was later hit. In case, One might think of the reason for putting TSL to cost, You can check this - the NIFTY trade got invalidated near 12PM as it made a complete pin bar showing weakness near the point it triggered the intraday buy.