Nifty Elliot Wave Analysis leads to this high probability hypothesis - It seems the 5 waves up from last year's covid bottom levels might be completed, and this could be the start of the correction phase/downtrend with some up-corrective waves in-between. If this model holds, there could be an ensuing 3rd strong down-wave to 13,700 levels and then beyond to 10,500 levels+.
Additionally, there is an underlying weakness visible on weekly charts with negative MACD crossover, negative moving average slopes and negative momentum divergence.
Therefore, it is better to be careful with long positions. Investments should only be valuation driven as price action models could be extended/broken with the market dragging the prices. High degree of confidence on valuation, understanding of business in which you have invested, and may be some hedging through options should be the process right now and investments should not based on any tips/news.
Disclosure: this article is purely for educational and analytical purposes only and should not be construed as an investment/trading advice.
Refer: this post is a follow-up to my last Nifty post which seems to hold up.
Additionally, there is an underlying weakness visible on weekly charts with negative MACD crossover, negative moving average slopes and negative momentum divergence.
Therefore, it is better to be careful with long positions. Investments should only be valuation driven as price action models could be extended/broken with the market dragging the prices. High degree of confidence on valuation, understanding of business in which you have invested, and may be some hedging through options should be the process right now and investments should not based on any tips/news.
Disclosure: this article is purely for educational and analytical purposes only and should not be construed as an investment/trading advice.
Refer: this post is a follow-up to my last Nifty post which seems to hold up.
Comment:
The hypothesis that we might have witnessed the end of 5th extension wave, still is a high probability model. The corrective waves can test considerable highs, and can then still pave way for a strong downtrend in a third down wave. Although, anything can happen in markets, and some new strong developments in pattern might suggest that we might still in an extended motive-up wave. But for now, still holding this view.