Ending of an uptrend or just a retracement?
I have used a simple price action theory on the 15 minute time frame of Nifty 50.
As we can see that from 18th May, 2020 Nifty 50 started making higher tops and higher bottoms where up swings are marked with green arrows and retracements with red arrows.
Then on 8th June, 2020 Nifty made a high of 10327. But on the next day i.e. 9th June Nifty 50 couldn't cross that high of 10327 and thus made a lower high of 10291; also breaking the previous swing low of 10121 (made on 8th June) and thus making a lower low.
However, if we take a fibonacci retracement of the entire uptrend starting from the low on 18th May, 2020 at 8810 to the high of 8th June, 2020 at 10327, the 23.6% retracement comes at 9969 which is just a few points from the close of 9th June. Also, we see a strong support marked with a red horizontal line at 9951 which has acted as a previous resistances and supports.
My thoughts on this is that Nifty may again make a swing high till 10159 acting as a resistance and then a lower low with 9969 to 9951 acting as a support area. There are always some 'ifs' and 'buts' some like: If Nifty breaks the support area of 9969 to 9951, I see a further downfall till 9767 to 9676. On the other hand, a break above 10159 shows a retest to 10327.
These are just my views on Nifty 50. They may vary from person to person and my views can prove wrong too.
As we can see that from 18th May, 2020 Nifty 50 started making higher tops and higher bottoms where up swings are marked with green arrows and retracements with red arrows.
Then on 8th June, 2020 Nifty made a high of 10327. But on the next day i.e. 9th June Nifty 50 couldn't cross that high of 10327 and thus made a lower high of 10291; also breaking the previous swing low of 10121 (made on 8th June) and thus making a lower low.
However, if we take a fibonacci retracement of the entire uptrend starting from the low on 18th May, 2020 at 8810 to the high of 8th June, 2020 at 10327, the 23.6% retracement comes at 9969 which is just a few points from the close of 9th June. Also, we see a strong support marked with a red horizontal line at 9951 which has acted as a previous resistances and supports.
My thoughts on this is that Nifty may again make a swing high till 10159 acting as a resistance and then a lower low with 9969 to 9951 acting as a support area. There are always some 'ifs' and 'buts' some like: If Nifty breaks the support area of 9969 to 9951, I see a further downfall till 9767 to 9676. On the other hand, a break above 10159 shows a retest to 10327.
These are just my views on Nifty 50. They may vary from person to person and my views can prove wrong too.
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